Institutional Outlook on US September Non-Farm Payrolls Report: Employment Market Weak Trend Likely to Continue, But Collapse Talk Premature

On November 20th, the first non-farm payroll report following the shutdown will be released this evening. The views of various institutions are as follows: Rockefeller: It is anticipated that non-farm employment in September will rise by 50,000, suggesting that the employment market remains steady. Previously disclosed labor data has exhibited a clear weakening tendency. Indeed Hiring Lab: In contrast to previous reports, it is not considered that there will be significant alterations in the September non-farm employment report, and the current weak state of the labor market will persist. Pantheon Macroeconomics: Any data that appears unsatisfactory at present may continue to fester due to a six-week data void period, and the negative impact of non-farm data may be magnified. Reuters Survey: It is expected that non-farm employment in September will increase by 50,000. Economists believe that the data in August was suppressed by seasonal abnormal factors and may be revised upward based on historical trends. Loyola Marymount University: The labor market is clearly decelerating, and it is widely anticipated that this trend will continue. The labor market will hover at the bottom for a certain period but will not fall into a recession. Nationwide: It is expected that non-farm employment in September will increase by 40,000 to 50,000, further confirming that the summer weakness in the job market has carried over into the fall, with companies maintaining a stance of neither hiring nor firing. Nomura Credit: It is expected that non-farm employment in September will increase by 55,000, and the unemployment rate will be recorded at 4.3%. The labor market appears to be cooling down but has not collapsed, still showing a situation of "low hiring, low firing." Standard Chartered Bank: It is expected that the non-farm employment data from September to November will be "very weak," with seasonal hiring likely to be very weak and layoffs being unusually high. This should be sufficient to persuade the Fed's moderates to lean towards the rate-cut camp. Goldman Sachs: It is expected that non-farm employment in September will increase by 80,000, and the unemployment rate will be recorded at 4.3%. The risk lies in the unannounced October data, with an expected decrease of 50,000 in October non-farm employment. Union Bank: It is expected that non-farm employment in September will increase by approximately 40,000, and the market reaction may be smaller than usual because more information about the job market can already be obtained from data released by private institutions. RSM Consulting: The September data, along with revisions for July and August, will show that the employment outlook is slightly better than generally expected but is far from remarkable. The labor market is still struggling to sustain itself, and so is the overall U.S. economy. (Note: The market consensus expectation is that U.S. non-farm employment in September will increase by 50,000, and the unemployment rate will be recorded at 4.3%.) (Jin10)