Vitalik's "Quantum Computing to Break Encryption Algorithms by 2028" Warning Triggers Community Debate, Research Progress Is Key

On November 20th, Vitalik Buterin issued a warning at the Devconnect conference yesterday. He stated that quantum computing could break Elliptic Curve Cryptography before the 2028 U.S. presidential election. This statement has triggered intense discussions within the community. Crypto KOL Charles Edwards said that mainstream experts are already evaluating the risk of a quantum attack on Bitcoin. Vitalik's three-year prediction also validates this. The crypto industry can no longer overlook this risk. Physics expert David M. Antonelli put forward a different view, stating that even the most optimistic projections (from IBM, Google, and Quantinuum) expect only a few thousand physical quantum bits by 2030, not millions of logical quantum bits. Furthermore, Tom Lee also retweeted reports related to Vitalik's warning about the "quantum computing threat to cryptographic algorithms." Although there is controversy over whether the threat of quantum computing to the crypto industry will materialize by 2028, the community generally believes that based on the current research progress rate, quantum computing will indeed pose a threat to cryptographic algorithms in the foreseeable future.