Analysis: The probability of Strategy selling Bitcoin in the short term to pay off debt is low, and at this stage, its valuation is relatively more attractive.

On November 19th, Matrixport disclosed its daily Icon Observation, indicating that Strategy remains one of the most representative beneficiaries in this current Bitcoin bull market. The market has been worried that the company might be compelled to sell its Bitcoin holdings in the future to repay debts. Judging from the current asset-liability structure and debt maturity distribution, we reckon that the probability of "forced Bitcoin selling to repay debt" in the short term is relatively low and is not the primary source of risk at present. The most stressed ones currently are the investors who bought at a high premium. Most of Strategy's financing took place when the stock price was close to the $474 historical high and the Net Asset Value (NAV) per share reached its peak. As the NAV gradually decreases and the premium narrows, the stock price has also retreated from $474 to $207. As a result, the investors who entered in the high premium range earlier are facing significant paper losses. Compared with the current increase in the Bitcoin price, Strategy's current stock price has significantly retraced from its previous high, making its valuation relatively more appealing, and the expectation of being included in the S&P 500 Index in December still persists. Nevertheless, this round of correction still reminds us that both pace and valuation are of equal importance, and investors need to be more cautious in controlling their entry price and timing.