Bitunix Analyst: Waller Openly Supports December Rate Cut, Fed Split Becomes Market's Biggest Uncertainty

November 18th: The Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller publicly expressed his support for another 25 basis point rate cut during the December meeting. The reasoning centers around the continuous weakness in the labor market and concerns regarding the pressure on mid- to low-tier consumers. Waller referred to this as a "risk management rate cut," believing that in a situation where official data is limited, it is better to provide insurance in advance to prevent a rapid deterioration in employment. Meanwhile, the hawkish voices within the Federal Reserve have not weakened, and a divided vote count creates uncertainty for the next decision. Whether to maintain the interest rate or cut it again could lead to at least three dissenting votes. Policy expectations are no longer unidirectional, and the market needs to hedge between "the possibility of a rate cut" and "an increasing policy divergence." In this policy haze, the crypto market has shown significant pressure. The fear index is currently at 12, with a 51% increase in trading volume in the past 24 hours, resulting in a significant market impact. The total amount of liquidations in derivatives in the past 24 hours reached $9.1157 billion, with long positions at $6.3131 billion and short positions at $2.8023 billion. On-chain data and ETF flows also show insufficient resilience. With profit-taking selling pressure and continuous ETF fund outflows, a rapid price reaction is driven by a liquidity gap. Bitunix Analyst View: Waller's dovish signal briefly boosted risk asset expectations in the early stage of the news cycle. However, in a data vacuum and in the context of escalating FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) divergence, it will only amplify bidirectional volatility. We are monitoring three potential event-driven price paths: if ETF outflows stop and whales enter the market to buy in the range of $85,000 to $90,000, BTC is likely to rebound to $100,000; if cascading liquidations in derivatives and more long-term holders accelerate selling, breaking below $85,000 to $88,000 will quickly guide the price down to the deep liquidity zone of $75,000 to $77,000. Key short-term observations: 1) FOMC voting dynamics and Waller's subsequent comments; 2) daily ETF net flows and the frequency of cash withdrawals from large wallets; 3) PUT/OI (put options open interest) and synchronized changes in implied volatility—if all three deteriorate in the same direction, the market will shift from structural repricing to accelerated decline.