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Hunter Horsley: The Four-Year Cycle Will Be Broken Due to "Reflexivity," 2026 Remains Undefined

3 hours ago

On November 16th, Hunter Horsley, the CEO of Bitwise, posted and said, "This is what I have observed happening every four years: Consensus: People have faith in the four-year cycle, thus 2026 is expected to be a bear market year for Bitcoin; First-order effect: People will start to sell in 2025 in order to avoid the bear market year; Second-order effect: The sellers in 2025 lead to 2025 becoming a bear year, breaking the four-year cycle; Third-order effect: 2026 is still uncertain, but the four-year cycle has been disrupted. Recently, Hunter Horsley stated, "The four-year cycle is a remnant of the past. Since the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF, we have entered a new market structure: new participants, new dynamics, and new reasons for people to buy and sell. I believe we have probably already experienced a bear market for nearly 6 months and are about to exit it. The development environment for cryptocurrencies has never been more favorable."
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Bitcoin's year-to-date return rate in November is currently at -12.39%, compared to the historical average return rate of 42.49%.

On November 16th, according to Coinglass data, the year-to-date return rate of Bitcoin in November is currently -12.39%. In contrast, the historical average return rate is +42.49%. As was previously reported, on November 1st, since 2013, Bitcoin has had an average November return rate of +42.49%, with a median November return rate of +8.81%. Among the past 12 years, there were 8 gains and 4 losses in November.

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In the last 72 hours, over 10,000 BTC have flowed into CEX.

On November 16th, according to analyst @ali_charts, during the past 72 hours, more than 10,000 BTC (approximately $1 billion) has flowed into cryptocurrency exchanges.

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Tom Lee: Market Impact from Liquidity Gap in DeFi May Take 6 to 8 Weeks to Heal

On November 16th, Tom Lee, the Chairman of Bitmine and the first Ethereum hodler institution, responded to a user's query about "how long it might take for the market to recover from one to two market maker funding gaps." He stated, "It may take 6-8 weeks, after Thanksgiving (November 27th), or there will be some relief." Previously, Tom Lee said: "There are signs of weakness in the crypto market. One to two market makers' balance sheets have significant 'gaps.' Sharks are hunting and intend to trigger liquidation and Bitcoin sell-offs. Is this pain short-term? Yes. Will this change ETH's supercycle (that is, Wall Street building an ecosystem on the blockchain)? No. But now is not the time to use leverage and avoid getting liquidated."

2 minutes ago

Greeks.live: Community Sentiment Turns Bullish, $85,000 Seen as Potential Bitcoin Support Level

On November 16th, Adam, a researcher from Greeks.live, posted on social media, saying, "The community is showing a bullish sentiment. Traders are discussing aggressive bullish strategies despite the potential concerns about downside risk. They mentioned $85,000 as the potential support. The key focal points include BTC $100,000 call options and the $3,000 - $5,000 range for ETH. At the same time, there is a debate on the appropriate hedging strategy using $90,000 put options."

2 minutes ago

Binance Alpha will list Datagram Network (DGRAM) on November 18th

On November 16th, Binance Alpha will take the lead in listing Datagram Network (DGRAM) on November 18th. Once the Alpha trading commences, eligible users can access the Alpha event page to claim the airdrop by using Alpha Points. Specific information will be provided separately.

2 minutes ago

Cobie: Has been holding ZEC since 2016 and has not engaged in paid promotion.

On November 16th, the cryptocurrency KOL Cobie tweeted that he has been holding ZEC since 2016 and has not been involved in any paid promotions. He also stated, "New holders might not be aware of the 'harsh lessons' that old holders have gone through with ZEC over the past decade. Therefore, when ZEC finally enters a bull market, they assume that we were paid. Most of us in this community have been deceived by so-called 'mining contracts' even before ZEC was launched."

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