Hunter Horsley: The Four-Year Cycle Will Be Broken Due to "Reflexivity," 2026 Remains Undefined

April 1: Per HyperInsight monitoring, a whale with an address starting with 0x198 today opened a 25x leveraged long position on GOLD, with a size of $4.24 million, an average entry price of $4,610, and a liquidation price of $4,606. As gold’s spot price climbed above $4,720, the position’s current unrealized gain has reached $114,000 (+60%). Among all on-chain whales holding PAXG and GOLD gold positions, this address is the closest to its liquidation price.

As of April 1, CME’s FedWatch data shows the probability of the Federal Reserve hiking rates by 25 basis points in April has fallen to 0.5%—down from a brief 12.4% on March 23. Rate hike odds are now nearly negligible, with a 99.5% chance rates will remain unchanged.

On April 1, Bitget market data indicates U.S. crypto-related stocks posted broad gains in pre-market trading. Key movers include: - Circle (CRCL): +2.64% - American Bitcoin (ABTC): +2.56% - Bit Digital (BTBT): +2.31% - Sharplink Gaming (SBET): +2.02% - Gemini (GEMI): +1.81% - Robinhood (HOOD): +1.52% - Coinbase (COIN): +1.41% - Riot Platforms (RIOT): +1.42%

April 1st, QCP noted in a post that a recent Google paper has reignited debate over quantum computing and cryptography security—specifically Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC), the scheme used by Bitcoin and Ethereum. This is a long-term structural issue, not an immediate market risk—and that distinction is critical. ECC security relies on the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem to protect private keys, making it computationally infeasible to derive a private key from its corresponding public key. The same standard secures banking networks, encrypted communications, and global financial infrastructure—including the SWIFT system. If quantum computing breaks ECC, the impact will be global, not limited to digital assets. Technically speaking, the computing power needed to crack ECC is still a long way off. To date, the world’s most advanced quantum systems represent only a tiny fraction of that required threshold—roughly 1,000 times short—meaning practical attacks remain a dist

MGBX Launches "April Speed Sprint Week" Limited-Time Event Kicking off April 1, the MGBX platform will host its "April Speed Sprint Week" limited-time event from April 2 to April 8, 2026 (SGT) — open to all platform users. Contract traders can join these challenges during the event: - The first 200 daily check-in completers split a 2,000 USDT prize pool. - Trades ending in the number 8 qualify for a lucky draw, with 200 winners each taking home 10 USDT. - Elite users with high cumulative trading volume share a 4,000 USDT prize pool. - Users meeting specified loss criteria split a 2,000 USDT prize pool. Total prize pool cap: Up to 10,000 USDT.

Per an official announcement dated April 1, Huobi HTX will make HTX the sole token for fee deductions starting at 00:00 UTC+8 on April 1, 2026. The platform will also gradually phase out the TRX fee deduction function. Users paying fees with HTX will get an extra discount on top of their original Prime tier rates: 25% off spot trading fees and 5% off contract trading fees. To enable HTX deductions and view corresponding rules/benefits, users can access the “My Fee Rate” section in the Huobi HTX app or click “Fee Rate Introduction.”