Bitwise CEO: Crypto Bear Market May Have Lasted 6 Months and Is About to End

November 14th: JD Vance said in an interview with Fox News that Democratic Senate Leader Chuck Schumer is likely to end his entire political career because of "leading a government shutdown." JD Vance stated that Schumer "has worked harder than anyone to advocate for a government shutdown." This week, Chuck Schumer suffered a significant setback. Reports indicated that he will not run for re-election in 2028.

On November 14th, McKenna, a partner at Arete Capital, pointed out in the market outlook that in the short term, Bitcoin still has a considerable pullback space, with the potential for a maximum decline of 31%. However, in the long term, institutional holding and fund inflows will drive the price to reach a new all-time high in the next few years. McKenna stated that Bitcoin has broken below the weekly 50-period moving average, which may lead to further downward pressure. The potential support levels include $96,200 (a high-volume node), $93,300 (the yearly opening price and the midpoint of the range), and the range of $86,000 - $91,000 (a full retracement would correspond to approximately a 31% pullback). He pointed out that the price has received support around $92,000 twice, which is typically regarded as a preferred phased entry position. Although a correction is expected in the short term, McKenna emphasized that he would view the pullback as an opportunity to hold spot position

On November 14th, the CryptoQuant analyst @AxelAdlerJr tweeted that, based on his established Bitcoin conservative valuation model (which is said to be based on the epoch cycle method and has a backtesting score as high as 95/100), during the bear market phase, the first support level for Bitcoin is $87,000 and the second support level is $74,000.

On November 14th, based on official data and Ember Data, the current cost distribution of top cryptocurrency treasury companies is as follows: Strategy: Possesses 641,692 BTC with an average holding price of $74,085. The unrealized profit percentage is 31.67% compared to the current BTC price. Bitmine: Holds 3,505,000 ETH with an average holding price of $4,020. The unrealized loss percentage is 20.14% compared to the current ETH price. Forward Industries: Holds 6,871,599.06 SOL with an average holding price of $232.08. The unrealized loss percentage is 38.53% compared to the current SOL price.

On November 14th, Matrixport released today's market view indicating that Bitcoin has entered a bear market phase. The recent trend exhibits similarities to historical "mini bear market" phases in multiple aspects. In this market environment, it is particularly crucial to remain sensitive to key signals and implement strict risk management. Regarding funds and the macro environment, ETF inflows have decelerated, early and senior funds have reduced their positions, and there is a shortage of short-term macro catalysts. The subsequent trend still depends to a large extent on the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve. Currently, the market is at a critical juncture where multiple important structural price levels and macro trigger factors will determine whether the next move is a further downward exploration or the entry into a bottoming phase.

On November 14th, as per an official announcement, Binance will remove the COIN-M RUNEUSD perpetual contract and carry out automatic deleveraging at 09:00 (UTC) on November 19, 2025.