After the US Government Shutdown, a Wave of "Low-Quality" Data Could Hit the Market

April 1st — Bitcoin notched a 23.8% drop in the first quarter of 2026, marking its worst Q1 performance since 2018 (when it plunged 50% in the same period), per The Block. Adding to the downturn: a 23% decline in Q4 2025 means the crypto has fallen roughly 41.6% over the past six months. Analysts point to multiple drivers for the slump. Andri Fauzan Adziima, Research Director at Bitrue, noted the Q1 drop was primarily fueled by outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, plus persistent high inflation, a cautious Federal Reserve, and broad market risk aversion. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $4.965 billion in Q1: $18 billion left in the first two months, partially offset by $13.2 billion in inflows in March. Still, analysts say Bitcoin’s long-term conviction remains unshaken. Min Jung, a researcher at Presto Research, stated: “There’s little evidence of a structural shift in long-term Bitcoin belief. Institutional participation and adoption trends are intact, meaning this decline is

April 1 – WTI crude oil fell below $98 per barrel (intraday drop: 3.78%) while Brent crude was down 3.3% Wednesday, after former President Trump said the U.S. would withdraw from Iran within two to three weeks regardless of an agreement. Kaiyuan Macro’s Thomas Mathews noted: “Hopes of easing tensions have lifted markets, but we believe the war’s impact will linger even if it ends quickly. Both sides have issued positive signals in earlier stages, yet many turned out to be empty promises.” (FX678)

On April 1st, Bitget data shows U.S. stock index futures continued to climb: Nasdaq futures extended gains to 1.08%, Dow futures are now up nearly 0.68%, and S&P 500 futures have risen 0.76%.

On April 1st, Onchain Lens data reveals the newly created wallet 0x9d3 deposited 19.6 million USDC into HyperLiquid to take long positions on CL ($25.67M) and BRENTOIL ($15.6M), currently facing a liquidation loss exceeding $2.3M.

Per Coinglass data, Bitcoin closed March up 1.81%—snapping a five-month losing streak. Looking ahead to April: Since 2013, Bitcoin has posted 8 up months and 5 down months across 13 April periods. Its largest April gain was 50.01% (2013), while its steepest drop was 17.3% (2022). Since 2013, Bitcoin’s average April return is 12.12%, with a median return of 5.04%.

Bitcoin surged past $69,000 on April 1, per HTX market data, posting a 24-hour gain of 2.44%.