Matrixport: The market is entering a phase of consolidation, and it is premature to characterize it as a "cycle top."

On November 7th, Matrixport released a market outlook stating that Bitcoin has entered a stage of consolidation. The price is currently facing both macroeconomic and market structural pressures. As the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized that it will not rush to cut interest rates or ease policies, market expectations for rapid easing have gradually cooled. There is a lack of new easing catalysts in the short term. Meanwhile, the dollar has stabilized and rebounded near its low for this cycle, and liquidity has tightened since mid-summer. The strong capital inflow at the beginning of the year due to spot ETFs has been mostly digested, and the subsequent buying momentum has significantly slowed down. A combination of multiple factors has suppressed the continuation of the uptrend. From the perspective of the holding structure, the participation and risk appetite of major buyer groups have weakened simultaneously. Some early large holders have chosen to take profits in batches, and the inflow of funds into spot ETFs has cooled down simultaneously. Coupled with several recent liquidation events, native crypto funds have proactively deleveraged, and overall positions are more cautious. In terms of price, Bitcoin has fallen below several key cost reference ranges. Historically, when the market is in this range, it often enters a consolidation phase rather than immediately restarting the trend. Overall, these signals are not enough to support the conclusion that "this cycle has already peaked," but rather indicate a more common slowing down and consolidation phase in the later stages of the cycle. Structurally, the market is undergoing chip turnover and position reduction to create conditions for a more cost-effective allocation range in the future. Looking ahead, if the global liquidity environment shifts from tight to loose and the monetary policy paths of major central banks become clearer, it is expected to improve Bitcoin's mid-term performance from 2026 and beyond. Before that, maintaining patience remains the more prudent choice.