Trump Tariffs Case Oral Argument to Begin Soon, Current Chance of Defeat Stands at 61%

On November 5th, the probability on Polymarket that Trump will lose the tariff case in the Supreme Court is currently 61%. Bettors anticipate that the Court is likely to reject Trump's argument regarding "broad global tariffs without congressional approval." Just a few hours later, the oral argument battle regarding the president's emergency economic powers is about to commence. (Oral arguments at the U.S. Supreme Court usually start at 10 a.m. Eastern Time, which is 11 p.m. Beijing Time on this day.) BlockBeats had previously reported that the U.S. Supreme Court will hold oral arguments today on whether Trump can impose tariffs under the IEEPA. The key issue in this case is: Can the president impose broad tariffs on imported goods from around the world under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)? The impact of this case goes beyond just trade policy; the Supreme Court's ruling will determine whether the president can bypass Congress by using emergency powers, potentially making this practice a routine governance tool and profoundly affecting the constitutional separation of powers and the limits of presidential power.