Opinion: CEX and Miner Reserves, Stablecoin Flows Show Funds Leaving the Market

On November 4th, according to the research firm XWIN Analysis, Bitcoin CEX Reserves Have Experienced a First-Time Increase in Six Weeks, suggesting that investors are transferring Bitcoin back to CEX. This usually serves as a sign of profit-taking or risk mitigation. Historical data indicates that this inflow of funds implies that traders are preparing for potential market fluctuations and adopting a defensive strategy. At the same time, Miner Reserves Have Dropped to the Lowest Level Since Mid-2025, indicating that due to the suspension of energy subsidies and tax deductions during the government shutdown, miners are compelled to sell Bitcoin to cover operating costs. In addition, Stablecoin Withdrawal Volume from CEX Has Soared to a Historic High, highlighting the transfer of funds from risk assets to dollar-pegged safe-haven assets. In other words, liquidity is flowing back from the open market to stable value stores. CEX reserves, Miner reserves, and Stablecoin withdrawals - these three metrics collectively form a coherent narrative: capital is fleeing risk, and on-chain liquidity is contracting. Investor sentiment also reflects this dynamic. The "Fear and Greed Index" Has Dropped to "Extreme Fear" levels, echoing those seen during the 2023 banking liquidity crisis. XWIN stated that although the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts a brief market rebound once the government shutdown ends, on-chain data shows that the recovery of confidence and capital will take longer. For Bitcoin, this period is not merely a buying opportunity during a price dip but a stress test of conviction, liquidity, and patience in a market environment with fiscal dysfunction.