Wintermute: Despite the continued favorable macro environment, the crypto market has performed very poorly, and the "four-year cycle" theory is no longer applicable.

On November 4th, the cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute released a lengthy article stating that the current macro environment remains positive: rate cuts are underway, the end of quantitative tightening (QT) is approaching, and the stock market is nearing its peak. However, the cryptocurrency market is still lagging behind. Additionally, after the FOMC meeting, fund flows are retracting. Global liquidity is expanding, but capital is not flowing into the crypto space. ETF fund inflows are stagnant, and Tokenized Asset Trading (TAT) activity is drying up. Only stablecoins continue to grow. The overall market structure is healthy - leverage has been reduced, positions are clean. But in order to usher in a new round of gains, the return of funds to ETFs or TAT will be a key signal. The current issue is not "lack of liquidity" but "liquidity going elsewhere." Global liquidity is indeed expanding. Central banks around the world are cutting rates in a strong economic backdrop, a rare situation that usually indicates the imminent start of a strong risk appetite cycle. However, this new liquidity has not flowed into the crypto market as it did in the past. ETF funds are stagnant, TAT activity is drying up, overall liquidity is sufficient, but the share flowing into crypto has decreased significantly. The "four-year cycle" theory no longer holds true. The miner supply and halving logic that drove price cycles in the past has little influence in a mature market. What truly drives prices now is liquidity.