Fed Decision Preview: Market Focus on Powell Press Conference

On October 29th: The market had a widespread expectation that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 25 basis points, adjusting the policy rate to 3.75 - 4.00%. At the same time, it was anticipated that the central bank would announce the end of quantitative tightening (QT). This meeting will not announce the quarterly economic projections. Therefore, the focus will mainly be on Powell's press conference. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is expected to once again describe the rate cut as a risk management measure. In the absence of key economic data, he will refrain from revealing too much information in order to maintain the stability of market expectations. Currently, the market considers a rate cut in October as a certainty. The probability of a rate cut in December is also close to 100%. By 2026, there is an expected cumulative rate cut of 117 basis points, which is higher than the Fed's projected 75 basis points (Krypton Ten).