Fed Decision Preview: ADP Data Could Shake Fed's December Rate Cut Confidence

On October 29th, Market analyst Giuseppe stated that yesterday the US automatic data processing company ADP released the four-week US employment data ending on October 11th, 2025. The average weekly addition was 14,250 employment positions, indicating an increase of about 57,000 positions in four weeks. In early October, the Dallas Fed estimated that the current breakeven point is around a monthly increase of 30,000 jobs, and 57,000 is significantly above this level. Due to the absence of government data, the ADP data shows a strong rebound signal, which may cause Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to be more cautious when hinting at a rate cut in December. If this is the case, it will be regarded as a hawkish surprise and will have a significant impact on the market. In addition, the most dovish member of the Fed, Waller (one of the candidates for Fed Chair), also stated that the ADP data is one of the reasons why he supports a rate cut. He recently said, "I still believe we need to cut rates, but we need to be cautious about it." (FXStreet)