Entity: In the US, both the overall and core CPI year-over-year rates for September are expected to be close to 3%, signaling a potential inflationary concern for the Federal Reserve.

On October 23: Dean Baker, the Chief Economist of the UK think tank CEPR, stated that the US September CPI data is likely to exhibit a growth rate similar to that of August. The energy component witnessed a 0.7% increase in August and is also likely to show a rapid growth rate in September. The household food component rose by 0.6% in August, and the growth rate in September may decelerate. The September core CPI monthly rate is likely to reach 0.3% once again, which may be rounded up to 0.4%. Moreover, both the overall and core CPI year-on-year rates in September are likely to be close to 3.0%, which is a full percentage point higher than the Fed's 2.0% target. For the Fed, the level of inflation may be of less concern compared to the direction of change. It is more probable that the inflation rate will rise rather than decline, at least until all the impacts of tariffs are passed on to consumers. If new tariffs are implemented and the effects spread to more industries, the situation will become more intricate. Unless a significant economic recession takes place, it is difficult to envision a scenario in the short term where inflation meets the Fed's target. (FXStreet)