Analyst: Bitcoin Retests Key Support Level, Institutional Buying Pressure Key Variable

On August 3rd, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. put forward that due to the non-farm payroll data coming in below expectations (73k versus the expected 110k), the Fed's decision to hold rates for the fifth consecutive time with internal differences, and the escalating trade tensions and other macro headwinds, the global market has shifted to a "risk-off" mode. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced their worst performance since April. U.S. bond yields dropped by nearly 20 basis points, and gold saw an inflow. Bitcoin also came under pressure and quickly retraced from a high of $119,800 to $112,000. The 30-day momentum decreased to +3%, and the ADX slid to 36, indicating a weakening short-term bullish momentum. On-chain activity decreased, but exchange outflows still showed ongoing accumulation in the market. Despite the intensified short-term volatility, the structural bullish thesis remains unchanged. Strategies and institutions added more than 30k BTC to their holdings in the past week. The options market's Max Pain remained stable at $118,000, with a dominance of bullish positions at higher strike prices. The SEC-initiated "Crypto Project" also holds the promise to alleviate the industry's long-standing regulatory pressure. If Bitcoin holds above the $110,000–$113,000 support level and the momentum rebounds to above 8%–10%, the market is likely to retest the $119,000–$122,000 range. If it drops below $110,000, there is a fear of a retracement to $105,000–$107,000. In the coming weeks, the tug-of-war between macro risks and institutional buying will determine the direction of the next phase.