HTX DeepThink: US Tariff Deadline Looms, Crypto Transaction Volume Continues to Decline, Macro Uncertainty Intensifies

On July 1st, HTX Researcher Chloe pointed out that by July 1st, the 24-hour spot trading volume of the cryptocurrency market had dropped to approximately $1.04 trillion, which was a decrease of more than 20% from the beginning of June. Bitcoin was maintaining a consolidation around $107,000. As the July 9th deadline for U.S. tariffs was approaching, the market was concerned that the increase in import costs and the tightening of U.S. dollar liquidity would restrain risk appetite. The "Pennsylvania Plan" proposed by Deutsche Bank has started to attract attention. This plan aims to attract domestic support for government bonds through regulatory exemptions, tax incentives, and stablecoin legislation, and promote the popularization of USD stablecoins. On-chain data shows that the demand momentum index has dropped to a historical low. Miner revenue is declining and selling pressure is rising. In terms of derivatives, the open interest in Bitcoin options remains at a high of $90 billion, and the Put/Call ratio is 0.74. CME FedWatch shows that the expectation of a rate cut in September has risen to more than 70%. The macro policy direction still dominates market sentiment.