Next Week's Macro Outlook: Will CPI "Ignite" the Market and Shatter Rate Cut Hopes?

On June 7th, the following is the schedule for the release of key macroeconomic data next week: On Monday at 22:00, the US April Wholesale Sales Month-on-Month; On Monday at 23:00, the US May New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectation; On Wednesday at 20:30, the US May CPI Data; On Wednesday at 22:30, the US EIA Crude Oil Inventories as of June 6th, Cushing Crude Oil Inventories, and Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventories; On Thursday at 20:30, the US Initial Jobless Claims as of June 7th, the US May PPI; On Friday at 22:00, the US June 1-Year Inflation Rate Expectation Preliminary Value, the US June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preliminary Value. The US May CPI report to be released next Wednesday will test the market's optimism about interest rate cuts as it may show a halt to the recent downward trend in inflation. According to the forecast of the Cleveland Fed's Nowcast model, the overall CPI in May is expected to grow by 2.4% year-on-year, which is higher than last month's 2.3%; the core CPI is expected to grow by 2.8% year-on-year, remaining unchanged from last month. Analysts expect that the three-month annualized inflation rate for core goods will reach its peak in early fall this year (4%-5%), which is slightly lower and delayed compared to before the suspension of the May 8th "parity tariffs."