HTX DeepThink: Bitcoin Returns to $100,000, Market Shows No Signs of Frenzy, Cautious of U.S.-China Trade Friction Risk

On May 9th, the HTX Researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) stated in the latest HTX DeepThink column that although Bitcoin has returned to $100,000, the current market has not yet exhibited signs of a "frenzied rally." The Bitcoin options implied volatility (IV) remains within the 50%-55% range, which is significantly lower than the 80%+ level witnessed at the peak of previous bull markets; the CME Bitcoin futures open interest is approximately $14.8 billion, also lower than the $20 billion peak during Trump's election in 2020. Chloe pointed out that if the U.S. bond yield does not reach 4.8% again and ETF funds continue to flow in, BTC may fluctuate and consolidate in the $105,000 to $115,000 range, waiting for a new breakthrough opportunity. At the same time, she cautioned that attention should be paid to the uncertainty of trade negotiations between China and the U.S. as well as between Europe and the U.S.; if trade friction intensifies, it may exert pressure on market sentiment and cryptocurrency prices. It is worth noting that in her column last week, Chloe predicted the possibility of a liquidity window in early May through macro data analysis, thereby creating conditions for funds to flow back into the market.