Due to the "Fill the Gap in Missing Data" message, the market is once again betting on a rate cut in December.
On November 19th, as per Polymarket data, the present predicted market likelihood of the Fed reducing interest rates by 25 basis points in December has climbed to 52%, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged has dropped to 46%.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in December has surged to 48.9%, which was 42.4% yesterday.
In today's news, a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Labor stated that the Labor Department intends to make up for the missing weekly initial jobless claims data from the government shutdown period by the end of Thursday's local time.
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Teaser: Starting this Thursday, the U.S. will fill in missing employment data and release a new set of economic data
On November 19th, a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Labor declared that the Department intends to make up for the missing weekly initial unemployment claims data by the end of Thursday local time.
Spokesperson Ryan Honick stated that due to technical problems, one set of initial data—indicating 232,000 initial unemployment claims for the week ending October 18th—was unexpectedly released ahead of schedule. Honick mentioned that as these missing data points are added retroactively, the Department of Labor will not issue a complementary press release as usual. The missing data will be directly published on the official website of the Department of Labor.
The Department of Labor's latest announcement also indicated that it plans to release September's PPI data at 9:30 PM Beijing time on November 25th and publish September's Import and Export Price Indices at 9:30 PM on December 3rd. In addition, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has announced that it will start
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Filecoin has released the Filecoin Onchain Cloud, an on-chain cloud platform, which has been launched on the testnet.
On November 19th, Filecoin announced the initiation of Filecoin Onchain Cloud (FOC), an open and verifiable cloud platform based on content-addressed data, with transparent service delivery and programmable payments.
Filecoin Onchain Cloud is constructed around five open-source, verifiable, and composable elements: Filecoin Pay for verifiable service payment channels, Warm Storage for storage services, the Synapse SDK developer interface for Onchain Cloud, a straightforward path from IPFS to verifiable persistent storage named Filecoin Pin, and Filecoin Beam for incentive retrieval on the open network. Filecoin Onchain Cloud has been launched on the testnet and is slated to become operational on the mainnet in January 2026.
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A U.S. Man Admits Involvement in Cryptocurrency Theft Case, Involving $263 Million
On November 19th, as per Decrypt, the U.S. Department of Justice made an announcement. A 45-year-old man named Kunal Mehta from California, also known as "Shrek", has pleaded guilty. He admitted to violating the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) and being involved in laundering at least $25 million worth of cryptocurrency.
Mehta is the eighth member of the gang to enter a guilty plea. He provided services such as crypto-to-cash exchanges and held high-end cars for the purpose of money laundering. It was known that he carried around $500,000 in cash to deliver to his co-conspirators. Since 2023, the gang has stolen a total of $263 million in cryptocurrency through social engineering and hacking. The embezzled funds were used to purchase nightclub services, luxury goods, real estate, and more. Court documents list 28 seized vehicles, including 7 Lamborghinis, 3 Ferraris, 1 Rolls-Royce, and 1 McLaren. A total of 13 individuals have been prosecuted in this case, and
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U.S. Senators Urge IRS to Revisit Cryptocurrency Staking Reward Tax Policy
November 19th. According to Bloomberg, Indiana Republican Senator Todd Young sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bennet on November 19th, urging the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to reevaluate its 2023 guidance on the tax treatment of cryptocurrency staking rewards. As a member of the Senate Finance Committee, Senator Young questioned the existing regulations which require cryptocurrency holders to pay taxes when they "receive" staking rewards instead of when they "sell" them.
Staking refers to the process in which cryptocurrency holders lock up their assets to support blockchain network operations and validate transactions. Bennet is currently serving as the acting IRS commissioner and has direct responsibility for overseeing this policy.
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