Analysis: De-escalation of US-Iran Tensions Boosts Bitcoin Rebound, Market Reversal Still Awaits ETF Inflows and Buying Interest Confirmation
June 13 Bitcoin Update: BTC plunged from nearly $73,000 to under $60,000 before bouncing back to around $63,500. At this level, it’s down roughly 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of ~$126,000. While this pullback has pushed Bitcoin into the valuation band typically linked to bear market bottoms, there’s been none of the panic selling that usually signals a definitive market bottom.
One key catalyst for the recent drop? A noticeable shift in Michael Saylor’s Strategy. The firm disclosed on June 1 that it sold 32 BTC for about $2.5 million to cover preferred stock dividends. Though that sum is tiny compared to its roughly 845,000 BTC holdings, the market framed it as a major departure—Saylor has long clung to his mantra of “never selling Bitcoin.” Strategy may be testing a new approach to using BTC as a corporate treasury asset by offloading small amounts, rather than just holding long-term. Earlier Iran tensions added extra pressure, lifting oil prices and amplifying fears of
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CME FedWatch: Fed Rate Hike Odds Drop to 59.4%
As of June 13, data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 39.6% probability the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady through December, with only a 1% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut in that period.
Meanwhile, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike this year has dropped to 59.4%. The breakdown of projected hike probabilities is as follows: a 42.3% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase, 14.9% for 50 basis points, 2.1% for 75 basis points, and a tiny 0.1% probability of a cumulative 100-basis-point rate hike.
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SpaceX Equity Token on PreStocks Trades at 27.5% Discount to Actual Stock Price Due to Lock-up Period on Underlying Shares
June 13 – SpaceX equity tokens on PreStocks are trading at $116.71 as of press time, marking a 27.5% discount to the open-market SPCX share price of $160.95. According to PreStocks, this pricing gap stems from temporary liquidity constraints tied to the underlying shares remaining locked up. The discount is set by market demand and supply, and it may narrow over the next six months as the underlying shares gradually unlock. Token holders can sell their positions at this current discount, while new buyers may purchase SpaceX equity tokens at the same rate.
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SpaceX has officially become the world's eighth-largest publicly traded Bitcoin holding company, currently holding 18,712 BTC
June 13 update: Elon Musk’s SpaceX has officially gone public. In its S-1 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), SpaceX disclosed it holds 18,712 Bitcoin (BTC). At the current price of roughly $63,000 per BTC, this holding is valued at about $1.18 billion—making SpaceX the 8th-largest publicly traded company globally in terms of Bitcoin holdings. SpaceX’s BTC has been on its balance sheet for some time, with an average purchase cost of around $35,000 per coin, meaning it has accumulated substantial unrealized gains.
Musk’s other publicly traded firm, Tesla, holds 11,509 BTC. Combined, SpaceX and Tesla own 30,221 BTC total. If the two companies merged, their joint Bitcoin stake would rank as the 5th-largest globally among public companies. SpaceX’s IPO is granting traditional investment portfolios indirect exposure to Bitcoin, showcasing the growing acceptance of BTC as a treasury asset by large strategic businesses.
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SIREN Whale Sells 17 Million Tokens, Leading to 50% Price Drop
On June 13th, on-chain analyst Yu Jin reported that a SIREN whale carried out intensive on-chain selling of roughly 17 million SIREN tokens over the past two hours, amounting to around $6.75 million. The sell-off caused the SIREN price to plummet more than 50%, dropping from $0.47 to $0.23. Notably, this whale holds at least 94% of SIREN’s total token supply, which adds up to 680 million tokens. Since February, the whale has completed four rounds of operations over the course of four months.
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Pudgy Penguins announced the shutdown of the Pudgy Party mobile game
June 13 — In an official announcement, Pudgy Penguins confirmed it has shut down its mobile game Pudgy Party and ceased all further development on the title.
Pudgy Party, which once debuted at No. 1 on the App Store charts, amassed over 1 million downloads and contributed significantly to expanding the Pudgy Penguins IP’s user base.
The team stated that its web-based game Pudgy World boasts stronger advantages in scalability, narrative potential, and user acquisition capabilities. The title has seen rapid growth and will serve as the flagship game for the broader Pudgy Penguins universe, with the development team now fully focused on advancing its future development.
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