Polymarket Predicts 80% Probability of "Bitcoin Reaching $100,000 by 2026"
As of January 1st, Polymarket’s current probabilities for Bitcoin’s 2026 trajectory are:
- 80% chance it rises to $100k
- 64% chance it rises to $110k
- 78% chance it drops to $75k
- 58% chance it drops to $65k
This version uses concise, American English conventions (e.g., "$100k" instead of "$100,000" for brevity, clear bullet points for readability, "as of" to anchor the time frame, and "trajectory" to naturally frame price outcomes). It retains all original data while feeling more like a typical U.S. news brief.
2 hours ago
Ethereum Maximalist: Based on the Short Squeeze Thesis and Bullish on the 2026 Mega Bull Run, Will Strongly Continue to Increase ETH Position
On January 1st, Jay Li, founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), endorsed the short squeeze logic put forward in a related analysis in a social media post. He pledged to keep accumulating ETH—including positions with manageable leverage—and expressed optimism for a major bull market in 2026.
Echoing his strategy and outlook from the first half of 2025, when ETH traded between $1,000 and $2,000, Li emphasized disregarding fluctuations of a few hundred dollars. He noted this is trend investing, where success fundamentally hinges on acting on future insights.
2 hours ago
Flow: A certain exchange's AML/KYC process had a flaw, and after the vulnerability was exploited, a certain account received 150 million FLOW tokens and promptly cashed out, withdrawing over $5 million.
On January 1st, the Flow Foundation released a statement addressing coordinated efforts by exchanges following the December 27th exploit incident. Since the breach, the Foundation and its forensic partners have collaborated with global exchanges to protect users and resume operations—with Kraken, Coinbase, and Upbit as key partners, and Kraken already having restarted services.
The Flow Foundation expressed concern over how a specific exchange handled the incident. Within hours of the exploit, a single account deposited 150 million FLOW tokens (roughly 10% of the total supply) into the exchange, converted a large portion to BTC, and withdrew over $5 million in funds during the short window before the network was paused. This transaction pattern reveals a flaw in the exchange’s AML/KYC processes, shifting financial risk to users who unknowingly bought the fraudulent tokens.
Forensic analysts have identified significant deviations from normal market behavior in FLOW trading pairs on th
2 hours ago
U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis: "Responsible Financial Innovation Act of 2026" Allows Large Banks to Provide Digital Asset Custody, Escrow, and Payment Services
On January 1, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis said in a post that the Responsible Innovation in Financial Services Act of 2026 permits large banks to offer digital asset custody, staking, and payment services under appropriate regulatory oversight. Lummis noted that digital assets are an integral part of the financial system, and integrating them into the regulated banking framework can unlock growth potential while safeguarding consumers.
2 hours ago
Ethereum Sees 12.6% Annual Decline in 2025, Hits All-Time High Above $4900 Mid-Year
Jan 1st — Per HTX market data, Ethereum closed 2025 at $2,984, marking a 12.6% full-year decline.
The token opened the year at $3,414 and followed an inverted "N" trajectory: a yearly low of $1,385 in April, a gradual recovery, and a peak of $4,955 on August 25.
2 hours ago
Bitcoin Records 7.84% Annual Decline in 2025, Surges to All-Time High of $126,000 Mid-Year
Data from HTX on January 1 shows Bitcoin posted a 7.84% annual drop in 2025, closing the year at $87,950. The cryptocurrency opened 2025 at $95,432.
Key 2025 developments:
- Jan 21: Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential inauguration; Bitcoin briefly topped $109,000 before pulling back.
- Mar 7: Trump signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
- Apr 7: Trump signed an “Equal Tariffs” executive order, sending Bitcoin briefly below $75,000.
Subsequently, Bitcoin rallied on three catalysts: rising institutional demand, expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, and the U.S. government shutdown. It hit a 2025 high of $126,181 on Oct 7—marking a historic peak. However, an Oct 11 flash crash triggered over $20 billion in liquidations, drying up liquidity and sending Bitcoin tumbling to ~$80,000 before stabilizing.
2 hours ago
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