Rising interest rates rekindle inflation concerns, US stocks pull back, Bitcoin continues to decline while seeking support.
Overnight to this morning, U.S. consumers’ one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.9%, hitting a more than three-year high, signaling improved labor market confidence. Separately, the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s September meeting were released, showing all 19 policymakers backed a September rate hike but cited varying rationales; most participants judged another rate increase before the end of the year could be appropriate. In related news, Axios reported that the U.S. Pentagon has ordered U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) to complete preparations for resuming major military operations against Iran, though Trump has not made a final decision nor set a specific strike date. U.S. and Israeli officials said if the operation is relaunched, it could occur before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, and even earlier than Israel’s general election on October 27. As a result, the three major U.S. stock indexes pulled back: the Nasdaq ended its five-session winning streak, the S&P 500 fell from record highs, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 1% at one point during trading. For individual stocks, data from BIT (bit.com) shows the semiconductor index and banking index both closed down more than 1%, while Micron rose 4.06% against the trend; Meta fell over 2%, and cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike dropped nearly 5%. Additionally, markets are monitoring the coordinated oil reserve release by multiple countries. Data from Bitget shows crude oil turned negative during trading: Brent crude, after rising 2% intraday, swung to a nearly 1% loss, while U.S. WTI crude settled at a new low in over a month. Gold retreated to a two-month low, dropping more than 2% intraday. In the crypto market, data from HTX shows Bitcoin fell below $83,000 overnight, then found brief support, and is currently trading at $83,234.80.
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Vitalik: AI could impact post-quantum cryptography security in the next two years, but users are advised not to hastily transfer their assets.
Vitalik Buterin has issued a warning that AI-driven advances in mathematical research could significantly erode the practical security of lattice-based cryptography systems—including ML-DSA and fully homomorphic encryption (FHE)—over the next two years, and may even bring forward the risk of ECDSA being cracked. He noted that AI could deliver mathematical research progress equivalent to the past 50 years within two years, prompting Ethereum’s Lean roadmap to gradually shift toward pure hash signature schemes over the past year to reduce reliance on lattice cryptography. On asset security, Buterin advised users to prioritize storing funds in addresses that have never initiated transactions when operationally convenient, but cautioned against rushing to migrate assets immediately as the migration process itself carries a risk of fund loss. He also recommended that multi-signature wallets adopt off-chain signature confirmation to avoid public exposure of signature information.
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Broadcom is seeking to secure more than $50 billion in financing for the chips required by OpenAI.
Oracle, Broadcom, and SpaceX are seeking debt agreements for AI chips. Broadcom is working to arrange over $50 billion in funding for chips required by OpenAI. Oracle is in discussions with Apollo and Goldman Sachs over chip financing, aiming to finalize a chip deal by 2026. Recently, the Financial Times reported that SpaceX is seeking $40 billion in financing to purchase Nvidia chips. SpaceX plans to raise around $10 billion in bank loans, plus $30 billion in investment-grade bonds.
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US media: The US military has been ordered to prepare for resuming strikes against Iran.
U.S. officials said the Pentagon directed U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) several days ago to prepare for the resumption of large-scale military operations against Iran. The order did not specify an exact strike timeline, and Trump has not made a final decision. However, U.S. and Israeli sources said the strike could occur before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, or even ahead of Israel’s general election, which is scheduled a week earlier than the U.S. vote. Sources noted that if large-scale operations resume, massive strikes targeting Iran’s energy sector, infrastructure, and nuclear facilities are expected. A Pentagon official revealed that the Defense Department’s role is to develop and submit military plans to the president. A White House official said Trump could take any action at any time. Reports added that if large-scale military operations restart, they would likely be conducted in coordination between the U.S. and Israel, with Israeli forces involved. Two Israeli officials stated that Iran is in a state of desperation and paranoia, which could prompt it to launch a preemptive strike.
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Samsung Electronics releases preliminary Q3 results: operating profit slightly exceeds expectations.
Samsung Electronics released its preliminary third-quarter results, reporting an operating profit of 107.4 trillion won, beating the market expectation of 106.1 trillion won. Its third-quarter revenue came in at 195 trillion won, falling short of the market forecast of 199 trillion won.
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Federal Reserve minutes signal a hawkish stance: Most officials expect another interest rate hike this year, but there is no clear urgency for a move in October.
The minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s September meeting reveal that the Fed’s policy-making committee has adopted a broadly hawkish unified stance on interest rate hikes, though members hold differing views on the justifications for supporting such moves. The minutes note: "Most participants judged that it may be appropriate to raise the federal funds rate target range further before the end of this year." However, participants also stressed that they remain open to each meeting’s policy decisions, which will depend on the latest economic data available at the time. Nick Timiraos, a journalist widely known as the "New Fed Correspondent", highlighted the minutes’ key takeaway: "On the monetary policy outlook following the current meeting, most participants believe another 25 basis point hike to the federal funds rate target range before the end of this year may be appropriate." As of press time, CME Group data shows investors are pricing in less than a 20% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting, a sharp decline from roughly 70% in the days after the September policy resolution. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), set to be released on October 14, is likely to be a critical factor shaping this market expectation.
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