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April 9, Nick Timiraos—known as the "Fed’s megaphone"—noted that expectations for Fed rate cuts are fading fast, and shifts in the Middle East situation are no longer a key factor. The latest minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) show that amid stable inflation and a robust labor market, the Fed held its benchmark interest rate steady in the 3.5%-3.75% range, signaling a more cautious policy approach. Most officials see that the effects of tariffs, energy price pass-through, and rising inflation expectations could slow the pace of inflation’s decline more than anticipated. The analysis notes that even a ceasefire may not prompt rate cuts. Conversely, reduced tensions could ease downside economic risks, draw more attention to inflation, and extend the period of elevated interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also warned that the Fed is currently grappling with multiple overlapping supply shocks, and there is a risk of unanchored inflation expectations. Some off

April 9th: Israeli media reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed opposition to striking an agreement with Iran during a conversation with Trump prior to the ceasefire announcement.

April 9 — On April 8 local time, the first day the U.S.-Iran ceasefire took effect, Israel launched its largest airstrike against Hezbollah since the current conflict began. Iran says the strike violates the ceasefire, adding it has closed the Strait of Hormuz again and is threatening deterrent action against Israeli military targets. The White House announced Tuesday (April 8) that the first round of U.S.-Iran talks will be held in Pakistan on Friday (April 11). But Iran argues three key provisions of the 10-point ceasefire terms have been breached, undermining the “basis for negotiations.”

April 9 — The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said transit through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted over Israeli violations of the Lebanon ceasefire agreement.

April 9 — Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei posted a video on social media Tuesday, showing White House Press Secretary Levitt telling reporters earlier that day that Lebanon is not part of the two-week ceasefire agreement. In the video’s caption, Baghaei asked: “If this isn’t another example of the U.S. once again breaking its word early, then what is?” He also retweeted a post from Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif dated Monday, which stated Iran and the U.S. “have agreed to an immediate ceasefire in all areas, including Lebanon.”

April 9: U.S. Vice President Pence said Iran’s first 10-point proposal is likely drafted by ChatGPT. It was immediately tossed in the trash and rejected. There’s a more reasonable second 10-point proposal rooted in discussions between the U.S. and Pakistan. That’s the one the president referenced, and it remained valid as of yesterday. A third 10-point proposal—even more extreme than the first—has been circulating across social media (Golden Ten).