Viewpoint: Bitcoin's Short-Term Safe Haven Status Compromised Amid Oil Price Shock, Could Maintain or Drop to $50K-$58K
**March 13 – Forbes Analysis: Bitcoin Struggles as Short-Term Safe Haven Amid Oil Price Shocks**
A Forbes analysis finds Bitcoin typically fails to act as a short-term safe haven during geopolitical conflict-driven oil price shocks. Historical data shows Bitcoin faces downward pressure—with varying decline speeds—whether oil prices plummet sharply or surge above $100.
The report notes oil price spikes signal mounting inflation, pushing central banks to keep interest rates high and eroding the appeal of risk assets like Bitcoin. Currently, with the Iran conflict escalating, global oil has again topped $100, while Bitcoin trades around $70,000—down ~45% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.
Per the analysis:
- If oil stays above $100 long-term, Bitcoin could drop another 15-25%, hitting $50k-$58k.
- If conflict worsens and oil hits $130-$140, Bitcoin may retreat to $40k-$45k.
Still, the report adds that historically, macro crises eventually trigger fiscal stimu
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FT: Gulf oil producers have lost about $151 billion in energy revenue, with the Hormuz Strait nearly closed
March 13 — According to the Financial Times, Gulf oil-producing nations have collectively lost roughly $15.1 billion in energy revenue since the U.S. and Israel launched a military strike on Iran. Near-stagnant shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has stranded millions of barrels of crude oil amid transport disruptions.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s key energy transit routes, handling roughly one-fifth of global oil trade. The ongoing regional conflict has sharply cut oil tanker shipments, leaving millions of barrels of crude unexportable and hitting Middle Eastern energy supplies and the global oil market.
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Bitcoin Surges Past $72,000 Outperforming US Stocks, Futures Open Interest Rises to $107.6 Billion
On March 13, Bitcoin climbed roughly 2% during Friday’s European trading session, breaking above the $72,000 mark, per a Coindesk report. It outperformed risk assets despite a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker U.S. stock futures—with Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures dipping at one point, while the U.S. Dollar Index rose above 100.
Derivatives data shows total cryptocurrency futures open interest (OI) jumped ~5% over the past 24 hours to $107.6 billion. Bitcoin OI hit 687,200 BTC, its highest level since late February; Ethereum OI rose to 13.72 million ETH, signaling ongoing fund inflows into long positions.
If Bitcoin breaks $74,000 with significant volume, the market could test $80,000 next; if it fails to breach that level, it may stay range-bound in the zone it’s traded in since early February.
Among altcoins, Trump-themed meme coin TRUMP surged over 30% in 24 hours after announcing a dinner with former President Trump for its top 297 holders. AI-focused tokens Bittensor and FE
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Mainstream Perp DEX Overview: Minimal volume variation across platforms, with Hyperliquid holding steady at a high level
As of March 13, DefiLlama data shows minor fluctuations in total trading volume and open interest across on-chain perpetual futures DEXs. Hyperliquid’s 24-hour trading volume ticked up slightly from the prior day, while its open interest remains elevated.
Below is the latest ranking of major perpetual futures DEXs by 24-hour metrics:
- Hyperliquid: ~$6.74B trading volume | ~$6.45B open interest (link: https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/NTOD)
- Aster: ~$2.36B trading volume | ~$1.95B open interest (link: https://www.asterdex.com/en/referral/aboter)
- EdgeX: ~$2.13B trading volume | ~$1.12B open interest
- Lighter: ~$1.77B trading volume | ~$736M open interest (link: https://app.lighter.xyz/?referral=70045843)
- Grvt: ~$1.50B trading volume | ~$494M open interest
- Pacifica: ~$482M trading volume | ~$74.33M open interest (link: https://app.pacifica.fi/?referral=pacbot)
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Strategy CEO Sells 2034 Shares of MSTR, Equivalent to Approximately $279,000
Strategy CEO Phong Le sold 2,034 shares of MSTR on March 13 at $137.25 apiece, totaling $279,174, per a recently filed Form 144.
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