Resurgent interest rate hike expectations hit US stocks and cryptocurrencies, with the Nasdaq ending its four-day winning streak and Bitcoin falling below $85,000.
Overnight, unexpectedly strong PMI data sharply boosted market bets that the Federal Reserve will maintain a tighter stance for longer, coupled with factors such as uncertainty over US-Iran tensions, leading to broad declines in US stocks and crypto assets. The three major US stock indexes closed lower: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.68%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.75%, and the Nasdaq slid 1.1%. According to market data from BIT (bit.com), among notable stocks, SK Hynix fell 3%, Meta rose 1%, and Amazon declined 2%. Among crypto-related stocks, Securitize, which benefits from the SEC’s stock token exemption policy, surged 10.46% against the trend, while other crypto treasury companies saw declines of varying degrees: MSTR fell 3.07%, BMNR dropped 4.52%, and BNC slid 3.63%. The PMI data, released Wednesday, far exceeded expectations, marking the fastest expansion pace since 2021. As a result, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose 14 basis points in a single day, breaking through the 5.00% threshold; the 5-year yield hit its highest level since 2007 during trading, while the 30-year yield climbed to its peak since 2004. The interest rate swap market has fully priced in expectations of three rate hikes over the next year, with some hedge positions even reflecting the possibility of a fourth hike. According to HTX market data, Bitcoin accelerated its sharp decline after yesterday’s US stock market opened, briefly falling below $84,000 before consolidating sideways, and is currently trading at $84,417.10.
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South Korea's exports surged 78.3% year-on-year in the first 20 days of September, notching the strongest monthly growth on record.
South Korea’s exports rose 78.3% year-on-year in the first 20 days of September, notching the strongest monthly growth on record. The figure pushed the country’s total export value to $71.4 billion, an all-time high, and marked the fifth consecutive month of growth of at least 50%. Semiconductor exports served as the main driver, surging 259.4% year-on-year to a record $34.1 billion.
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The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in October has risen to 69.7%.
According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% at its October meeting is 30.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 69.7%. Additionally, the probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at 3.75%-4.00% in December is 6.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 38.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 54.8%.
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Anthropic’s CEO: The company will slow down its AI development pace due to safety concerns.
Beating AI News: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned at the UN Security Council that without effective governance, AI could pose existential risks to all humanity, and called on countries to establish global AI safety standards.
Amodei, who attended the Security Council meeting via video on Wednesday, said AI could be used by malicious actors to develop bioweapons, and may eventually evolve into an uncontrolled system beyond developers’ control. For safety reasons, Anthropic will slow down its AI R&D pace.
Amodei also called for the establishment of an AI safety certification framework and pushed for global regulatory cooperation, urging nations to coordinate efforts to prevent AI from being used in bioweapons. He emphasized that no single leader, company, or country can address the challenges posed by AI alone.
Additionally, Amodei noted that AI is driving progress in the life sciences: Anthropic’s Claude has contributed to the discovery of a new enzyme system with CRISPR-like DNA repeats, though related technologies could also carry catastrophic risks.
This statement follows the AI safety proposal Amodei put forward earlier this month. Both Anthropic and OpenAI are at the core of competition in cutting-edge AI models, and their R&D pace and safety policies have drawn close attention from investors and regulators.
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TSMC to raise wafer foundry prices by 3% to 6% starting next year, with order visibility extending to 2030.
TSMC has confirmed it will adjust wafer fabrication prices starting January 2027 based on process nodes, with an overall increase of 3% to 6%. Advanced processes such as 2nm and 3nm will see the highest hikes, while mature and specialty processes will be priced on a case-by-case basis depending on products, capacity utilization rates, and customer conditions.
Currently, TSMC’s 8-inch wafer fabs are operating at over 100% capacity utilization, with processes below 45nm running at full capacity, and some order visibility extending as far as 2030. AI data center expansion is not only driving sustained demand for GPUs, ASICs, and HBM, but also boosting orders for mature-process chips including PMICs, MCUs, MOSFETs, and analog ICs.
Supply chain sources note that 2nm and 3nm capacity remains tight, while capacity bottlenecks for advanced packaging like CoWoS have not been fully resolved, making it difficult for customers to avoid price hikes by switching suppliers in the short term. The price adjustment is also expected to ripple out to other foundries including Samsung Electronics, Intel, UMC, and Vanguard International Semiconductor (VIS), as well as sectors such as packaging and testing, and IC design.
Industry insiders point out that growing demand for chips including power management units, network communication, and optical communication from AI servers has caused AI demand to spill over from advanced to mature processes, driving a rebound in capacity utilization for mature processes that previously faced weak supply-demand balances, and strengthening foundries’ bargaining power. Additionally, the heavy capital expenditure and cost pressures from TSMC’s overseas fab construction are also among the factors behind the price hike.
Supply chain sources forecast that the 2027 wafer foundry price hikes may further push up costs across sectors including packaging and testing, substrates, materials, and memory.
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11 U.S. Democratic senators urge Senate Banking Committee to hold a hearing on prediction markets
11 Democratic senators on the U.S. Senate Banking Committee are urging committee chair Tim Scott to hold a hearing on prediction markets, following the panel’s plan to host a Republican-only roundtable on the topic next week. The roundtable will focus on securities-based prediction markets, with a representative from Kalshi expected to attend. Currently, primary regulatory authority over prediction markets falls to the Senate Agriculture Committee and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); the Banking Committee’s planned discussion is seen as a further move by the panel to engage with the prediction market issue.
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