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March 6th: Natixis’ Christopher Hodge noted the latest non-farm payrolls report could hold particular sway for Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Earlier today, Waller said if February’s data is soft and January’s figures are revised down, questions would arise over why the Fed is holding pat instead of cutting rates. This would reinforce the Fed’s dovish camp view that recent encouraging labor data is just “fool’s gold” — referring to misleading economic data.

March 6 Despite a recent jump in oil prices that could stoke inflation, a disappointing non-farm payroll report lifted market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year—driving a rally in U.S. Treasury prices. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 4.1%, while the more Fed-policy-sensitive 2-year yield dropped 5 basis points to 3.53%. Interest rate swaps indicate traders are now pricing in 44 basis points of total Fed rate cuts by December, up from 35 basis points before the report’s release. (FXStreet)

On March 6, Goldman Sachs Multi-Asset Fixed Income Investment Director Lindsay Rosner noted: “Signs of a weak labor market are a reminder to the Fed that delaying rate cuts could carry costs, though short-term policy decisions still hinge on the ongoing Middle East conflict. “Iran’s developments and their potential inflationary impacts have somewhat overshadowed the U.S. employment picture, clouding the clarity of the path toward policy normalization. We expect the Fed will ultimately complete the remaining two rate cuts as part of normalization to bring rates back to neutral, but given current uncertainty, the exact timing remains hard to pin down.” (Source: FX678)

March 6 — Analyst Mark Niquette noted in a report that new data casts doubt on whether the labor market is truly stabilizing. The labor market previously logged its weakest hiring performance in a non-recession year in decades. Despite a jump in job growth early this year and stable initial unemployment claims, businesses may now be carrying out a wave of previously announced layoffs. Moreover, recent productivity gains suggest AI-related investments have let some companies run operations with fewer workers. These data points could prompt the Fed to refocus on the labor market when evaluating how long to hold rates steady. Before this, policymakers had been more focused on inflation — even prior to investors raising concerns about price pressures tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict. (KrisnCarlon)

On March 6, a New York Times reporter noted the report is politically ill-timed for the White House, which has not yet commented on the data. President Trump currently faces a worsening labor market and persistent inflation concerns, amid rising oil and gas prices tied to the Iran conflict. Previously, Trump downplayed weak economic signals and insisted the U.S. economy stayed strong under his watch. Even one of his most closely watched indicators—the stock market—has been highly volatile this week. (Sina Finance)

March 6 — Traders now peg the probability of a Fed rate cut in June at around 50%, up from 35% prior to the employment data release. (FXStreet)