Goldman Sachs: Deleveraging in tech stocks may be nearing an end, but there is a lack of near-term catalysts for a reversal.
Goldman Sachs partner and head of EMEA hedge fund business Mark Wilson said the current momentum trading sell-off has lasted 17 trading days. The U.S. stock market’s momentum factor has pulled back 28% from its peak, while the momentum factor for technology, media and telecom (TMT) has dropped 40% — the fastest and deepest pullback on record.
Sub-sector-wise, the KOSPI has fallen 27% from its high, U.S. AI-benefiting stocks have pulled back around 25%, global memory chip stocks are down 36%, and European semiconductors have dropped 23%. Goldman Sachs data shows that the volatility of the high-beta momentum portfolio is roughly 10 times that of the S&P 500 index, while the average implied volatility of individual stocks is 2.8 times that of the index.
Wilson believes the current sell-off is mainly driven by crowded positions, concentrated leverage and deleveraging, rather than a deterioration in macroeconomic conditions or corporate earnings. U.S. banking lending and consumption data remain on the rise, and TSMC and ASML have also issued positive business signals, yet their related stocks still fell after earnings reports.
He tends to view that the momentum factor’s liquidation process is nearing its end, but there is still a lack of immediate catalysts to reverse the market in the short term. The technology sector remains overvalued, and a new leading sector may need to be further clarified after the second-quarter earnings are digested.
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Serenity: SK Hynix ADRs and Korean Shares to Be Convertible Starting July 29; Over 25% Premium Likely to Narrow
Serenity stated in a post that SK Hynix’s American Depositary Receipts (SKHY) currently trade at a premium of over 25% relative to its local Korean shares. The two share classes will become mutually convertible starting July 29. Serenity noted that the opening of the conversion mechanism will create conditions for arbitrage trading, potentially narrowing the ADR premium—an outcome that could see either a rise in Korean local shares or pressure on the U.S.-listed ADRs. Serenity added that the current U.S. ADRs represent about 2.5% of total shares, with an additional roughly 22.5% of shares eligible for conversion at that time.
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Foreign investors net sold over 12 trillion won worth of Korean stocks in July, while the KOSPI index dropped more than 19% over the same period.
According to South Korean media outlet Etoday, from July 1 to 16, foreign investors net sold 12.1022 trillion won in South Korea’s KOSPI market and 338.1 billion won in the KOSDAQ market. Over the same period, the KOSPI index fell from 8476.48 points on June 30 to 6820.60 points. In contrast to the stock markets, foreign investors net bought 593.7 billion won worth of South Korean ETFs during the same period. Among these, KODEX leveraged ETFs saw net purchases of 195 billion won, KODEX 200 net purchases of 180.6 billion won, and KODEX 200 Inverse 2x Futures ETF net purchases of 130 billion won. Foreign investors’ simultaneous buying of products tracking the KOSPI 200 and inverse index ETFs is interpreted as portfolio adjustments amid high market volatility, rather than one-way bets. For single-stock leveraged ETFs, foreign investors net bought 22.7 billion won worth of Samsung Electronics-related products, but net sold 122.1 billion won worth of SK Hynix-related products. Additionally, foreign investors net bought 102 billion won worth of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ETF and 62.7 billion won worth of the US Nasdaq 100 Daily Target Covered Strategy ETF.
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Elon Musk: Companies that conduct large-scale long-term short selling of SpaceX have a very low survival probability.
Elon Musk responded to the claim that SpaceX's stock price has dropped 30% from its peak following its IPO, with short sellers pocketing roughly $8.7 billion, in a post on X, saying: "Companies holding large short positions in SpaceX over the long term have a very low chance of survival."
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The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has rebounded to 28, exiting the "Extreme Fear" zone.
According to data from Alternative, today’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 28 (up from 25 yesterday), as the market has moved out of the "Extreme Fear" zone and entered the "Fear" range. Note: The index ranges from 0 to 100, and its components include volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media sentiment (15%), market surveys (15%), Bitcoin’s market dominance (10%), and Google Trends analysis (10%).
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US regulators failed to issue the stablecoin rules required by the GENIUS Act on schedule.
U.S. regulators have failed to meet the one-year deadline set by the GENIUS Act to release implementing rules for stablecoins. As of July 18, key regulators including the Treasury Department, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) have not finalized the rules, with multiple core frameworks still in the proposal or public comment phase. Notably, the public comment period for stablecoin issuer customer identification rules runs until August 21, while the FDIC’s proposal on Bank Secrecy Act and sanctions compliance is open for feedback through August 4. Rules on reserve assets, capital, liquidity, custody, redemptions, risk management, and state regulatory recognition also remain not yet finalized.
The GENIUS Act was signed into law on July 18, 2025, mandating regulators to finalize supporting rules within one year. The law already establishes reserve, redemption, disclosure, licensing, and regulatory requirements for payment stablecoin issuers, including maintaining a 1:1 liquid asset reserve, publishing redemption policies, and monthly reserve disclosures, and prohibits direct interest or yield payments to holders. The regulatory delay does not automatically delay the law’s effective date. The GENIUS Act will still take effect no later than January 18, 2027, meaning the preparation time for regulators and potential stablecoin issuers will be further shortened.
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