Linera Launches Babbage Testnet

On March 28, Morgan Stanley filed an amended S-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for its proposed spot Bitcoin ETF, MSBT. The firm announced the ETF will charge a 0.14% annualized sponsorship fee—making it the lowest-cost spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. if approved. Should the ETF receive regulatory approval, its fee would undercut Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (0.15%) and be 11 basis points lower than the 0.25% fees charged by BlackRock and Fidelity’s spot Bitcoin ETFs. Morgan Stanley plans to list MSBT on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) with an initial 10,000 shares and $1 million in seed investment. Custody will be handled by Coinbase and BNY Mellon, with the ETF expected to launch in early April. Analysts note the pricing is a smart, competitive move likely to drive asset migration: Previous fee differentials have led to significant outflows from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust to competing products.

On March 29, Washington State Attorney General Nick Brown filed a civil lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi in King County Superior Court, accusing it of violating state law by offering services for betting on sports events, elections, and wars—framed as entertainment. The suit seeks to bar Kalshi from operating in the state, recover losses for Washington residents, and impose civil penalties. It also alleges Kalshi’s ads promoted ways for users to skirt local laws to participate in NFL prediction markets, demonstrating a "knowing violation" of state rules. In response, Kalshi pushed back, stating it is a federally regulated, compliant trading platform. The company denied offering markets tied to war-related events and expressed confidence in prevailing in the legal fight. This marks Kalshi’s latest regulatory run-in: it already faces over 20 civil lawsuits nationwide. Notably, an Arizona prosecutor previously brought criminal charges against the platform—the fir

On March 29, *The Washington Post* reported that U.S. officials stated the Pentagon is preparing for weeks-long ground operations in Iran. Per monitoring by PolyBeats (via the Telegram bot at https://t.me/PolyBeats_Bot), the prediction market Polymarket currently puts the probability of U.S. military forces entering Iran at 11% by the end of this month, and 62% by the end of April.

March 29 — An indicative poll at this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) found former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence as the top choice among attendees for the next Republican presidential nominee. Among over 1,600 participants, roughly 53% backed Pence, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio finished second with 35%. CPAC is an annual marquee gathering of GOP lawmakers, activists and presidential hopefuls. This year’s event was held in Grapevine, Texas, with attendees drawn largely from the conservative GOP base. The conference’s annual indicative poll is not a reliable indicator of the eventual nominee, but it reflects current support trends among core backers of Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. Per monitoring from PolyBeats, prediction market Polymarket currently lists the following 2028 U.S. presidential election win probabilities for top contenders: Pence (18%), California Gov. Gavin Newsom (17%), and Secretary of State Rubio (10%).

March 29 — U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on March 28 that U.S. Marine Corps personnel and other personnel have arrived in CENTCOM’s area of responsibility aboard the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli. (Xinhua)

March 29 — The U.S.-Iran conflict has persisted for a month, with the coming week poised to bring ongoing uncertainties and potential black swan events. Every small development — from diplomatic talks to escalated tensions — will keep markets on edge. Beyond geopolitics, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and Federal Reserve will outline their rate-hike roadmaps, while U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) will shape liquidity expectations. Key events follow (Beijing Time, BJT): ### Weekly Highlights - **Mon 07:50 BJT**: BOJ releases summary of opinions from its March monetary policy meeting. - **Tue 04:00 BJT**: New York Fed President John Williams delivers a speech. - **Wed 00:00 BJT**: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans gives opening remarks at a bank-hosted event. - **Wed 23:00 BJT**: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (2026 FOMC voter) speaks. - **Thu 20:30 BJT**: U.S. initial jobless claims (Mar 28 week); February trade balance. - **Fri 20:30 BJT**: U.S. March unemployment rate; NFP;