BNP Paribas and Standard Chartered predict that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points, believing that the Fed's policy needs "a forceful adjustment."
September 15th: An analyst from Natixis bank holds the view that the Federal Reserve's moderately restrictive stance has been maintained for an overly long time, resulting in a situation of "over-tightening." Consequently, despite the current concerns about inflation stickiness, the risk balance of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate (employment and inflation) has inclined towards employment. In light of this, a more forceful policy adjustment (that is, a 50-basis-point rate cut) is necessary. In fact, they are not the sole ones with this perspective. Standard Chartered Bank is another institution that has predicted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points this week. Nevertheless, it is important to note that this view conflicts with the current market pricing and the general consensus. Currently, the market widely anticipates a 25-basis-point rate cut. As previously mentioned, traders currently estimate the probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Fede
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Analyst: Powell's Tone and Guidance Are Market's Top Concern
September 15th: On Monday, the price of gold remained stable. Investors refrained from making significant wagers as they awaited the Federal Reserve's meeting this week. Ricardo Evangelista, the Senior Analyst at ActivTrades, stated, "It is widely anticipated that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points. Nevertheless, there remains uncertainty regarding Powell's tone at the conclusion of the meeting and the guidance he will offer for future policy decisions." (FX678)
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Goldman Sachs Strategist: US Stocks to Accelerate Again in 2026
September 15th: As per a strategist at Goldman Sachs, the stock market has started to disregard weak labor data and is anticipated to gain momentum again in the next year. The team led by David Kostin stated that this week, the expectations of the Fed rate cut will further bolster the stock market. Furthermore, stock investors hold an optimistic view that the recent slowdown in the labor market will only be of a temporary nature. It is pointed out that the cooling of the labor market serves as a "tailwind for corporate profits" and has also laid the foundation for the Fed rate cut. Profit margins usually follow the difference between prices and input costs (including labor). It is expected that for every 100 basis point change in labor costs, it will have a 0.7% impact on the earnings per share of the S&P 500. (FX678)
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On Monday night, the U.S. Senate voted on the nomination of the Federal Reserve Board Governor. It is still uncertain whether she will be able to attend this week's FOMC meeting.
September 15th: It is scheduled that the U.S. Senate will vote on the nomination of Sarah Bloom Raskin to the Federal Reserve Board on Monday evening in local time. According to the Senate schedule, senators will carry out a procedural vote around 5:30 p.m. in local time (5:30 a.m. on the 16th in Beijing time) and start the final confirmation vote around 8 p.m. (8:00 a.m. on the 16th in Beijing time). If all formal procedures go smoothly (nomination confirmation, paperwork, and swearing-in), Raskin may be able to participate in the Fed's policy meeting starting from this Tuesday.
However, it is still uncertain whether he can be sworn in and participate in the meeting in a sufficiently short time; the process from Senate approval to inauguration usually takes several days, but there have been precedents where some governors attended the FOMC policy meeting just one day after nomination confirmation. (FX168)
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