Trump dismisses Hagman’s new book as "fake news", reaffirms his narrative of election victory.
U.S. President Donald Trump posted a statement saying: "Regarding Margot Hagman’s book about me, based on a very brief and dry briefing, the book is essentially all made up, fake news, and mostly fictional—much like most of her writings about me over the years. She is a third-rate writer with third-rate intelligence, yet she earns top-tier income thanks to your favorite president, which is me. She was dead wrong about me on election matters, even though she knew I would win by a landslide; she was dead wrong on the Russia, Russia, Russia hoax; she was dead wrong about nearly everything. But she continues to spew garbage, and people still keep falling for it. Remember: I won the election, by a landslide. Also, Iran will never have nuclear weapons!!!"
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Head of Grayscale Research advises Strategy to sell over $3 billion worth of Bitcoin to improve its capital structure and restore market confidence.
Grayscale Research Head of Research Zach Pandl stated that instead of raising STRC preferred stock dividend rates by 50 basis points, it would be better to sell over $30 billion worth of Bitcoin to fulfill cash payment obligations and restore market confidence. Spot On Chain’s analysis notes that as an institutional research figure, Zach Pandl’s public recommendation that Strategy sell over $30 billion in BTC carries certain indicator significance. If Strategy ultimately proceeds with large-scale sales, it will exert considerable selling pressure on the market and may undermine the narrative of the firm’s continuous Bitcoin hoarding. This perspective also reflects market concerns over Strategy’s capital structure and the sustainability of its highly Bitcoin-reliant balance sheet. Going forward, attention should be paid to Strategy’s official response and whether actual Bitcoin transfers are detected in its on-chain wallets.
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South Korean regulators have repeatedly taken measures to cool the stock market, warning against the asset bubble spurred by widespread public stock trading.
Against the backdrop of continued gains in South Korea’s stock market and surging trading activity, South Korea’s financial regulators have recently issued a series of risk warnings to cool the overheated market. According to reports, South Korean regulators have issued risk warnings on leveraged and inverse products tied to individual stocks including SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, expressed concern over the rising balance of margin trading and short selling, and are exploring measures such as taxing unrealized stock gains to curb market speculation. Current phenomena in South Korea’s stock market—including widespread retail participation, extremely crowded trading, rapid growth of leveraged funds, a surge in new investors, and large IPOs absorbing massive capital—closely resemble market characteristics seen during multiple historical asset bubble periods. History shows that asset bubble bursts are often accompanied by wealth erosion, weakened consumer and investor confidence, rising risks for financial institutions, and long-term economic adjustments. Regulators’ early issuance of risk warnings amid the speculative boom aims to prevent the market from repeating the systemic shocks caused by historical bubble bursts.
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Serenity: Anthropic Should Strengthen Model Protections Instead of Blaming Policy Restrictions for AI Competition
In response to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report that China’s Zhipu AI has matched Anthropic in certain cybersecurity benchmark tests, market participant Serenity stated that rather than attributing this outcome to U.S. government policies, it is more reasonable to argue that Anthropic failed to establish sufficient model protection mechanisms to prevent model distillation. Serenity noted that prior to Anthropic’s launch of Fable, there were already industry rumors that Chinese teams could distill its models. He emphasized that the key to AI competition lies not only in investing massive capital expenditures (CapEx) to build technological moats, but also in protecting core model capabilities to avoid "handing over" achievements through methods such as large-scale API calls.
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This current Bitcoin bear market has lasted 237 days, marking the fourth-longest in history, but its decline is the smallest of any previous cycle.
According to a new study from CoinGecko, Bitcoin has experienced seven bear markets since 2014. CoinGecko defines a bear market as a period where Bitcoin’s closing price remains below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for more than 30 consecutive days. Data shows that as of June 28, 2026, the current 2025-2026 bear market has lasted 237 days, making it the fourth-longest in history.
Bitcoin has fallen from its all-time high of roughly $124,800 in January 2025, hitting a low of approximately $58,115 on June 25, with a maximum drawdown of 53.43% — the smallest decline of any bear market on record. CoinGecko attributes the relatively mild drop in this cycle to factors including increased institutional participation, maturing market infrastructure, and macroeconomic factors such as interest rate fluctuations and capital flows to artificial intelligence. By contrast, the three bear markets triggered by major industry events in 2014-2015, 2018-2019, and 2022-2023 all saw maximum declines ranging from 76.7% to 83.6%.
CoinGecko notes that historical data shows Bitcoin typically takes 65 to 166 days to reclaim its 200-day SMA after confirming a temporary bottom. If the June 25 low holds, Bitcoin could retake the average as early as the end of August this year, though a longer recovery period is not ruled out.
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Viewpoint: Bitcoin’s UTXO metric triggers the first capitulation signal of this bear market, potentially entering a bottoming phase.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost has stated that Bitcoin’s Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) profit/loss ratio has fallen to its lowest level since the current bear market, indicating the market is entering a broader "capitulation" phase — the first time this indicator has sent such a signal during the ongoing correction. Darkfost pointed out that the number of UTXOs sold at a loss has reached a significant level; historically, this stage often corresponds to bear market bottom zones, presenting favorable allocation opportunities for long-term investors. The last time the indicator hit a similar low was in mid-2023, when Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $26,000. Another analyst, DurdenBTC, also noted that the UTXO bottom signal has been triggered. The indicator has successfully captured every market bottom since 2016, though actual bottom formation still requires time, and short-term market sentiment may remain subdued. Darkfost further added that the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders is gradually turning negative, showing long-term holders are starting to capitulate, while the current correction is mainly driven by short-term holders transferring large volumes of Bitcoin to exchanges. On-chain analytics firm Swissblock believes Bitcoin has largely completed the first stage of its decline and is now in the bottom-building phase, with prices stabilizing but market momentum still weak. Additionally, risk aversion has risen amid U.S. weekend airstrikes on Iranian targets. Bitcoin briefly fell to $59,800 before rebounding to around $60,100.
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