Analyst: Bitcoin's true bottom may come after 'surrender' sell-off, with $65,000 as key moving average support

On April 16th, as per a report by CoinDesk, while the possibility of the bottom already being reached cannot be excluded, on-chain analyst James Check indicated that the actual bottom might only emerge after Bitcoin experiences a genuine "capitulation event." James Check suggested that this might involve Bitcoin retracing to around the $65,000 range, which he referred to as the "true market value" and represented the average holding cost of active investors. Once it reaches this level, the average investor might start to feel the pressure of unrealized losses, and even long-term holders who have been holding for five years might find themselves in a "drawdown" situation. Michael Saylor's average holding cost of Bitcoin is approximately $67,500. Although Check anticipates a substantial drop in Bitcoin from the $65,000 region, he believes there is strong support between $49,000 and $50,000. This price range not only marks the launch price of the Bitcoin spot ETF in 2024 but also a crucial milestone for Bitcoin's $1 trillion market cap. He stated that the probability of Bitcoin falling to $40,000 is low unless there is a global economic recession. In 2024, Bitcoin underwent a long period of "chopsolidation," with the price fluctuating widely between $50,000 and $70,000 for several months, laying a solid foundation of support for the market.