Predict.fun: Probability of Democrats sweeping both chambers in the U.S. midterm elections rises to 99%

This trader, who bet on Republicans in the 2026 Midterm elections, is now losing on all 5 positions, with a total unrealized loss of $624.8K.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), address 0x2ff…D661e withdrew 1306 ETH from Coinbase three hours ago, valued at $2.99 million, at a withdrawal price of $2286.68.

OKX's Star published a post criticizing an interview about Binance's security incident, arguing that the interviewee downplayed the platform's responsibility and tried to justify their own mistakes by belittling the security of traditional banks. He questioned the interviewee's claim that he "no longer operates Binance", noting that the individual was one of the most active Binance-related figures on social media after the incident and had previously debated with Elon Musk over SpaceX stock investments. Star stated that Binance repeatedly emphasized "only 2% of funds flowed out", but this figure failed to address concerns about the platform's security. He also questioned Binance's continued use of marketing campaigns to attract new deposits during the crisis, pointing out that crypto platforms and traditional banks face different threats, attack surfaces, and potential consequences, making comparisons of their security without this context misleading. Star cited reports that Bitcoin fell from around $81,000 to $75,000 during the market turmoil, adding that tens of billions of dollars in leveraged positions were liquidated. He believes the incident could harm the crypto industry's credibility among traditional capital markets, institutional investors, and regulators, and also called into question Binance's so-called "multi-layered security defense". Star said he prefers to collaborate with industry players, including competitors, to jointly raise security standards and protect user assets.

According to The Hill, election forecasting firm Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) predicted that the Democratic Party would win control of the U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday, reclaiming a House majority after four years in the minority and ushering in a new era of divided government in the U.S. This power shift will immediately have a major impact on Washington’s political operations next year: it will not only significantly hinder Trump’s legislative agenda, but also set the stage for a series of conflicts between the House and the White House, with contentious issues including immigration enforcement, government spending, Trump’s global tariff policies, and the Iran war, among others. The Democrats have pledged to launch a series of comprehensive investigations into Trump and his inner circle, focusing on the Epstein scandal, the violence accompanying Trump’s mass deportation efforts, and the financial affairs of Trump himself and his family.

Market strategist James Oyi said in a report that the U.S. stock market’s reaction to midterm election results may depend less on which party secures victory, and more on how much the final outcome deviates from the expectations investors had already priced in. Oyi added that regardless of the election result, a clearer political landscape is expected to ease some of the uncertainty currently weighing on market sentiment. If Republicans outperform expectations, sectors favoring policy continuity could get a boost. Disagreements on priorities between the White House and Congress may slow legislative progress, but could also limit large-scale policy overhauls. He also noted that the Texas gubernatorial election is worth monitoring as the state has increasingly become a popular destination for artificial intelligence (AI) data center investment. (Jinshi)

According to real-time data, the Republican Party has won the Florida Senate seat. Republican candidate Ashley Moody defeated Democratic opponent Angie Nixon in the election. Moody was previously appointed by the governor to serve the seat temporarily, and her victory enables her to formally complete the remaining term. Overall, the Democratic Party still holds a significant lead (45:34), has successfully flipped the North Carolina Senate seat, and currently needs a net gain of 3 seats (total +4) to regain the Senate majority.