10x Research: Bitcoin could rise to $90,000 by the end of the year, with Ethereum likely to underperform Bitcoin.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, forecasts Bitcoin is still on track to hit $90,000 by year-end, but may first pull back to the mid-to-high end of the $70,000 range before that. He anticipates the Federal Reserve will implement one more rate hike in December before becoming more cautious about further increases, a move that could support Bitcoin’s rebound ahead of year-end. Thielen notes that the participation of Wall Street traders and profit-taking by large holders are reshaping Bitcoin’s price trend. Institutional traders selling call options after price rallies have made it harder to replicate the double-digit consecutive gains seen in earlier years. He forecasts Bitcoin is more likely to rally sharply following the release of key economic data or Fed policy decisions, then enter a consolidation phase while waiting for the next macro catalyst. On the ETF demand front, Thielen estimates based on 13F filings that market makers account for up to half of the roughly $60 billion in net inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs he analyzed. These institutions hold ETF shares to hedge options trades, not necessarily to bet on Bitcoin’s upside. Still, he believes institutional investors and some sovereign wealth funds could enter the space in the future. Thielen also forecasts Bitcoin will outperform Ethereum. He argues that a large portion of value generated by Ethereum network activity flows to Layer 2s, and lower transaction fees may also reduce ETH burn volumes. Citing Hyperliquid’s model of using trading fees to buy back and burn HYPE as an example, he says Ethereum needs to create a more direct link between network usage and economic returns for ETH holders.