Crude oil supply in the Middle East is accelerating its recovery, with exports from the four major oil-producing countries returning to pre-war levels.

According to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, combined crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait hit 15.53 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, a month-on-month rise of around 10%, nearly returning to levels before the conflict erupted in February this year. Specifically, Saudi Arabia’s exports grew 13% to 7 million bpd, Iraq’s increased 9.5% to 3.35 million bpd, the UAE’s rose to 3.74 million bpd, and Kuwait’s expanded by one-third to 1.44 million bpd. Meanwhile, Iran’s crude oil and condensate exports have not recorded any tanker loadings for the second consecutive month, mainly impacted by U.S. maritime sanctions. The supply recovery is also mirrored in market structure: Dubai’s front-month crude oil futures shifted into contango for the first time since July, with the November contract trading at a discount of roughly $2 per barrel to the December contract, signaling a loosening of short-term supply. Driven by increased supply and expectations of possible U.S.-Iran talks resuming, both Brent and WTI crude oil dropped around 7% on Monday. However, analysts noted that this export recovery is gradual, with no large-scale concentrated tanker loading observed so far. Separately, OPEC and its allies are set to hold a ministerial meeting on November 29 to discuss 2027 production targets.