Analysts: The current rally is fueled by exhausted selling pressure rather than fresh capital inflows, though relevant indicators still point to the market being in the early stages of a bull market.
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Crypto market analyst Crypto Mommy, citing data from CryptoQuant, noted that Bitcoin’s Realized Cap has resumed an uptrend after months of correction. The metric has climbed from $1.057 trillion to $1.088 trillion, an increase of roughly $31 billion, or 2.9%. Analysts say this is generally a positive sign; historically, a rebound in this indicator has marked the early stages of a bull market cycle. Realized Cap calculates the network’s overall cost basis by using the price at which each Bitcoin was last moved on-chain, and its rise typically signals inflow of new capital. However, the analyst also pointed out that Bitcoin’s price has surged 16% recently, jumping from $69,000 to $80,000, far outpacing the 2.9% growth of its cost basis. This divergence suggests the recent price rally is driven more by reluctance to sell among existing holders rather than large-scale inflow of new external funds. The analyst also warned that a rise in Realized Cap is not an absolute guarantee of price gains; at the market peak in late 2025, this metric also rose amid profit-taking by long-term holders. To confirm whether the market is entering a healthier phase, the analyst advised investors to focus on two key signals going forward: first, whether Realized Cap can sustain continuous expansion; second, whether Bitcoin’s price can successfully hold its recent gains as capital flows in.
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