Bitwise: Bitcoin’s implied volatility falls to a three-year low, with long-term holders continuing to distribute their holdings.

Bitwise released a report noting that Bitcoin remains resilient near $82,000, a level close to the cost basis of spot ETF holdings. Key support levels below include the cost basis of short-term holders at around $74,800, and the true market average at roughly $77,600. The former serves as a reference for gauging short-term market direction, while the latter corresponds to the price level at which half of all invested capital in the market is either in profit or loss. The price range formed by these two levels may act as a dividing line between bulls and bears. Bitcoin’s 30-day and 60-day trading ranges have narrowed to 1.8% and 3.0% respectively, with at-the-money implied volatility across all tenors also approaching the bottom of its three-year distribution range. Specifically, 3-month and 6-month implied volatility sit at the 0.8th and 0.2nd percentiles of their historical distribution, respectively, indicating the market’s pricing of future volatility has dropped to an extremely low level. So far this week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a net inflow of $1.074 billion, rising in tandem with the spot-futures volume differential, providing support for Bitcoin’s price and offsetting some macroeconomic pressure. However, the market’s realized profit has also increased, especially among long-term holders. Meanwhile, the net position change metric for long-term holders is negative, signaling they may be in a phase of distributing their holdings, which could be one of the reasons for Bitcoin’s current prolonged consolidation.