Rumors of a SpaceX-Tesla merger are heating up, with Wall Street estimating a deal at $480 per share.

As SpaceX and Tesla prepare to release their third-quarter financial results, Wall Street is stepping up efforts to evaluate the valuation and financing arrangements for a potential merger of the two companies. However, Musk and his related firms have not officially announced any merger plans yet. Barclays analysts predict the two sides may announce a deal before the end of this year. If the merger is all-stock, Musk would hold around 37% of the combined company’s equity and approximately 56% of voting rights. RBC analysts put forward a hypothetical transaction price of $480 per share; according to their calculations, original SpaceX shareholders would hold roughly 52% of the combined company’s shares. All related analyses do not represent actual transaction arrangements. AI business is seen as the main rationale for potential integration. SpaceX absorbed Musk’s AI firm xAI in February this year, and has built out its presence in rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, and AI computing infrastructure. Tesla, meanwhile, focuses on autonomous driving, robotaxis, and humanoid robots, and the two companies are also jointly advancing the Terafab chip manufacturing project. That said, SpaceX’s AI investments have led to massive financing needs. Reports indicate the company generated $7.8 billion in revenue in the second quarter, with a net loss of $541 million, and AI capital expenditures reached $15.8 billion. Morgan Stanley analysts expect SpaceX may need to issue around $80 billion in debt next year. At the same time, Starlink expansion and spectrum acquisitions will also increase capital outlays. This week’s earnings reports will serve as a key window for the market to assess SpaceX’s financing pressure, Starlink’s profitability, and the feasibility of a potential integration of the two companies.