AI infrastructure returns under pressure: Gartner forecasts over $3.5 trillion in investments face impairment risk
55 minutes ago
Beating AI Express News: Gartner estimates that by 2030, AI data center owners will need to generate cumulative revenue of $8.5 trillion to cover capital expenditures, financing costs, and achieve a 12% return on invested capital (ROIC). However, revenue from AI businesses attributable to enterprises and consumers is projected to reach only $3.6 trillion, less than half of the target. The firm warns that AI infrastructure investment expansion may outpace revenue growth, and computing power assets could become obsolete before generating sufficient returns due to rapid depreciation, with over $3.5 trillion in AI infrastructure spending facing impairment risks. Separately, Global X research forecasts that the AI-related revenue of 15 AI platforms and service providers will exceed infrastructure depreciation around 2027, and reach approximately $1.5 trillion by 2030. The firm estimates that by 2030, every $1 in annual depreciation of AI-related assets will correspond to $2.36 in AI revenue. However, revenue covering depreciation does not mean it is sufficient to cover financing costs and meet the 12% ROIC requirement. Gartner also predicts that cost pressures and insufficient business differentiation will lead over 80% of new cloud service providers to cease independent operations by 2030. Meanwhile, CoreWeave’s CEO stated that the company’s order backlog is enough to meet its debt obligations. The firm’s Q2 backlog stood at $104.2 billion, with new customer commitments exceeding $25 billion in the third quarter.
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