Dangerous divergence intensifies in US stocks: Median S&P 500 constituents are down 15% from their peaks, with AI giants propping up the index’s performance.
50 minutes ago
As U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and oil prices rise, U.S. financial conditions have tightened significantly, leading to a sharp divergence in U.S. stocks: a small number of large tech stocks are propping up index performance, while regular stocks continue to face pressure. Morgan Stanley’s chief equity strategist Mike Wilson warns that tighter financial conditions are having an effect similar to Federal Reserve rate hikes, but the impact is concentrated mainly in regular stocks. Data shows that the median S&P 500 constituent has fallen roughly 15% from its 52-week high, one of the worst performances since the dot-com bubble burst; the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index has underperformed the market-cap weighted index by around 6% over the past six months. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 equity risk premium has fallen below zero, meaning stocks’ valuation appeal relative to U.S. Treasuries has further declined. Wilson notes that current pressure stems mainly from valuation contraction and has not yet clearly evolved into economic growth risks. Nominal GDP growth remains strong, and corporate earnings are still expanding, but if real interest rates continue to rise, market valuations could face further pressure. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, warns that U.S. stock supply could surge in 2027 due to expiring lock-up periods. Going forward, whether financial stocks can stabilize and U.S. Treasury volatility will ease will be key indicators for judging market direction. U.S. stocks now face two possible scenarios: either regular stocks rebound to catch up with large tech stocks, or large tech stocks pull back, dragging the index to converge with the broader market’s weak performance.
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