Perspective: The risk of MicroStrategy (MSTR) being excluded from MSCI indices may have already been priced in; a dip in MSTR’s net mNAV below 1 would present an opportunity.
47 minutes ago
Crypto KOL CM noted that the market may have already priced in the impact of MSCI’s removal of MicroStrategy (Strategy), meaning MSTR’s stock price may not see further sharp declines when actual passive selling pressure emerges. MSTR closed down 9.56% yesterday. Current valuations of MSTR use different metrics. The standard mNAV is the ratio of the company’s market capitalization to its BTC holdings value, while net mNAV accounts for factors like preferred shares and debt, reflecting the stock price relative to the net BTC value per share. Net mNAV readings below 1 are rare, typically signaling the market’s growing concern over the company’s operational health or its valuation logic. Take June this year as an example: back then, the market worried about the company’s insolvency due to Strategy’s tight cash reserves and falling BTC prices, leading to downward pressure on net mNAV at the time. Currently, Strategy’s cash reserves are ample, theoretically enough to cover its dividend payments for the next three years, and BTC prices remain above its roughly $75,000 cost basis for BTC holdings. As such, the likelihood of net mNAV falling back below 1 is low. If it does drop below 1, that could instead present an investment opportunity.
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