High oil prices are likely to persist until 2028, with markets concerned that even an end to the war will not ease energy pressures.
49 minutes ago
Reuters columnist Ron Bousso wrote that the Iran war has lasted longer than markets expected, prompting crude traders to reassess the outlook for the global energy market, with high oil prices projected to persist through 2028. Brent crude’s December 2027 futures contract has risen more than 13% since early September to $86 per barrel, hitting a record high since the contract’s launch; its December 2026 counterpart has gained around 12% over the same period. The rise in long-dated oil prices contrasts with the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) forecast that global oil supply will expand in 2027, leading to a noticeable market surplus, reflecting traders’ doubts about whether supply will recover as scheduled. While recent oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are near pre-war levels, risks including Iran’s attacks on ships, Houthi escalation of strikes on Saudi Arabia, and damaged refining capacity continue to weigh on supply prospects. Tensions in the diesel market are particularly acute. Europe’s benchmark diesel futures hit a record high of $1,480 per ton in mid-September, and its December 2027 contract broke above $1,000 per ton this week for the first time, far exceeding the $644 per ton level before the war began. Bousso pointed out that even after hostilities end, repairing damaged refining facilities, rebuilding inventories, and restoring logistics systems will take time. Additional costs such as transportation, insurance, and military escort are also likely to persist, extending energy cost pressures over a longer period.
JPMorgan warns AI stocks unlikely to replicate July rally: bottom-fishing funds ebb, leverage risks rise.
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