Analysts: Market indices show crypto trading activity has not yet seen a clear recovery, with Bitcoin stuck in a consolidation range awaiting a directional shift.

Crypto market analyst Axel Adler Jr stated in a social media post that Bitcoin has seen limited price volatility recently. The index tracking market activity— which integrates price volatility, exchange inflow/outflow ratios, and active buy-sell ratios— remains below its one-year average, indicating trading activity has not yet clearly recovered. The index’s 30-day moving average (MA) crossed below its one-year MA on September 12, hitting a low on October 6. It currently stands at 1768 points, lower than the one-year average of 1828 points. The analyst notes that given significant daily fluctuations, the 30-day MA is more meaningful for reference. As long as this indicator stays below its one-year MA, the market will remain in a low-activity state, aligning with Bitcoin’s recent narrow-range consolidation. If the index climbs back above its one-year MA, it could signal a resumption of trading activity; whether Bitcoin’s price breaks out of the Bollinger Bands will confirm the subsequent trend. Between October 6 and 13, the Bollinger Band width narrowed from 11.6% of the average price to 4.9%. Over the same period, Bitcoin fell from $85,800 to $83,200, with little movement in recent days. The current upper Bollinger Band is at $86,000, while the lower band is approximately $81,900. The analyst argues that a sustained price hold above $86,000 will send an upward signal, while a break below and sustained stay under $81,900 could confirm a downward trend.