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Vortexa: U.S. Sanctions Push Iran's Crude Oil Exports to Zero, No Recovery Seen in October

47 minutes ago

According to energy intelligence platform Vortexa, U.S. maritime sanctions have pushed Iran’s seaborne crude oil exports to zero since the second week of September, with no sign of recovery as of October 5. The 14-day average export volume in early September stood at 230,000 barrels per day. Currently, Iran’s seaborne oil tanker storage has dropped to 83 million barrels, of which 43 million are stranded west of the Strait of Hormuz due to U.S. sanctions. Vortexa noted that U.S. sanctions have effectively blocked Iran’s crude oil from leaving the Persian Gulf. Iran’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports fell 48% month-on-month, hitting their lowest level since at least January 2023. Meanwhile, Russia’s September crude oil exports rose 6% month-on-month to 3.79 million barrels per day, accounting for around 80% of the total high-risk crude oil exports from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela combined. The three countries’ total September exports reached 4.73 million barrels per day, down from 6.39 million barrels per day in the same period last year. Additionally, Gulf region oil exports excluding Iran have recovered to over 81% of pre-war levels, driven mainly by the rebound in Saudi Arabia’s exports. (Jin10)

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Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened higher across the board, with South Korea's KOSPI rising 0.44% at the open.

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Fed's Williams: One more rate hike likely this year, no further increases needed next year.

New York Fed President Williams stated that one more interest rate hike this year is appropriate, but if the economic outlook unfolds as expected, no further hikes may be needed in 2027. He noted that he supports the September rate hike decision, citing key factors including rising energy prices and increased AI infrastructure investment. Williams explained that the Middle East conflict has pushed up energy prices, which are feeding into core inflation via sectors such as transportation and food; meanwhile, demand for data centers and chips driven by AI development is raising costs for some goods and impacting labor costs in the construction sector. He added that while tariffs, energy prices, and AI demand have pushed inflation higher than this year’s forecasts, inflation expectations remain stable, core inflation metrics continue to decline, and he expects inflation to fall significantly next year, approaching the 2% target. Williams said AI demand is growing at a large scale, outstripping supply in the short term, but as chip production capacity increases and productivity improves, supply conditions may ease in the future, acting as a disinflationary force. When discussing the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, Williams noted that long-term yields are influenced by multiple factors including bond supply and demand, AI investment, fiscal policy, and energy prices, rather than just monetary policy.

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