Analysis: AI leading stocks pushed the S&P 500 index up 117% during the bull market, with mounting market concentration risk.

U.S. long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, shifting market focus from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike path to term premiums. The New York Fed’s model shows that the term premium on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has risen by a cumulative 40 basis points since mid-September to around 0.98%, hitting its highest level since 2014; over the same period, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has increased by roughly 30 basis points. Another model incorporating economists’ interest rate forecasts puts the term premium at 1.08%, its highest since 2010. Term premiums reflect the additional returns investors demand to compensate for uncertainties such as long-term inflation, fiscal risks, bond supply, and market liquidity. Analysts note that the recent rise in long-term yields may no longer be driven solely by Federal Reserve policy expectations, but rather reflects the higher risk compensation investors require for holding long-term U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. annual fiscal deficit stands at roughly $2 trillion, with the government continuing to issue Treasuries; meanwhile, AI infrastructure development has pushed tech giants to ramp up debt financing. According to Reuters data, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle have issued approximately $220 billion in debt this year, more than double the level of the same period last year. The simultaneous competition for long-term capital between the government and corporations could further drive up financing costs. If term premiums continue to rise, even if the Fed pauses interest rate hikes or lowers its future rate expectations, long-term U.S. Treasury yields may not decline significantly, exerting sustained pressure on housing mortgages, corporate loans, and economic activity. Analysts believe that fiscal expansion, increased debt supply, and geopolitical uncertainty may signal a structural shift in the environment of persistently low long-term rates over the past decade.

According to monitoring by Ai Yi, two addresses linked to the same crypto whale have accumulated long positions in BTC and ETH totaling around $50.3 million on Hyperliquid. The address diamondbull.eth opened 11,500 ETH long positions with 25x leverage during the market rebound, with a position value of about $28.72 million, placing it among the top seven ETH long holders on Hyperliquid. It currently has an unrealized loss of roughly $109,000. Its funding source address samurai.eth holds an additional 200 BTC and 2,000 ETH long positions, with a total position value of approximately $21.58 million, and is currently posting an unrealized profit of around $753,000.

U.S. stock markets opened, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.05%, S&P 500 up 0.27%, and Nasdaq up 0.54%. Apple (AAPL.O) fell 2.6% amid reports the company is cutting orders for the iPhone 18 Pro due to weak demand. Storage-related concept stocks rose broadly: Micron Technology (MU.O), SK Hynix (SKHY.O), and SanDisk (SNDK.O) gained around 1.5%, while Seagate Technology (STX.O) and Western Digital (WDC.O) rose roughly 1%.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, an address sold 262.78 ETH, converted the proceeds to approximately 643,000 USDC, and deposited the funds into Hyperliquid. Around 40 minutes ago, the trader opened a 40x leveraged short position on BTC, with a size of 305.51 BTC, a notional value of roughly $25.4 million, entry price of $83,067.70, liquidation price of $84,086.03, and is now holding an unrealized profit of $17,000.

Former U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) commissioner Mike Selig stated that the CFTC’s proposed crypto asset regulatory framework will establish a federal-level regulatory system to protect exchange customers from risks including fraud, market manipulation, and customer fund theft, preventing a repeat of the FTX collapse. Selig pointed out that the CFTC is working to introduce market-based regulatory mechanisms for crypto exchanges, while critics opposing these measures and backing the status quo could objectively benefit fraudsters, manipulators, and those who misappropriate customer funds. He warned that the absence of such regulation could create opportunities for another figure like Sam Bankman-Fried.

According to PeckShield monitoring, the attacker targeting the 79thVault hot wallet (used for 79AU operations) has returned 15,000 BNB tokens to the project team’s designated wallet address, valued at approximately $11 million. Separately, the attacker had previously deposited 30 BNB into KuCoin. The disposition of the remaining funds remains unclear. Earlier, the 79thVault on BNB Chain suffered an estimated $12.5 million loss, likely due to a private key leak. The team’s operational hot wallet typically only handles small transfers to the reward pool. However, recently, this address transferred 2.01 million 79AU tokens from trading pairs to external addresses in seven separate transactions, with amounts of 10,000, 100,000, 100,000, 300,000, 500,000, 500,000, and 500,000 units respectively.