Analysis: Bitcoin’s rally lacks trading volume and new capital support, with short-term investors opting to take profits during the upswing.

Glassnode’s report notes that Bitcoin’s breakout above the $85,000 sell wall occurred with low trading volume and limited new capital inflow, followed by a subsequent pullback. The 7-day average of combined daily trading volume on spot exchanges and U.S. spot ETFs stands at roughly $6.8 billion, lower than about 90% of trading days since January 2024. In the 30 days ending October 5, new capital from ETFs, stablecoin growth, and corporate treasury purchases totaled around $4.9 billion, less than 40% of the $12.8 billion realized market cap increase over the same period. On October 4, profitable short-term holders contributed approximately 86% of total inflows to trading platforms that day — a 1-year high — indicating recent buyers are taking profits. The options market has shifted back to a bullish bias, with the put-to-call open interest ratio at around 0.56. Recent liquidation levels are primarily concentrated below the current price; the nearest large liquidation cluster is at $81,700 to $83,300, while Binance’s largest buy order range sits at $81,000 to $81,250. If spot trading volume and ETF buying demand rebound, and Bitcoin firmly closes above $85,500, it will confirm the breakout has gained tangible support, potentially bringing the short liquidation cluster near $92,000 within reach. If the $81,000 buy level is broken, the underlying liquidation cluster could be triggered; altcoin leverage remains elevated, and a continued downturn may spark forced liquidations.