US Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2002, as two major long-term bears make a rare shift to bullish.
57 minutes ago
As U.S. long-term Treasury yields recently surged to their highest level since 2002, two prominent strategists who have long been bearish on sovereign bonds have turned bullish. Anatole Kaletsky, co-founder of Gavekal Research, this week turned positive on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries; Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, also shifted to a bullish stance on long-term U.S. Treasuries last week, marking his first positive view on the asset in six years. On Monday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at around 5.31%, while the 30-year yield rose to 5.66%, both hitting their highest closing levels since 2002. Bianco argued that after a prolonged sell-off, the absolute yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries are now attractive. TLT, the roughly $47 billion long-term U.S. Treasury bond ETF, had fallen for 10 consecutive trading days, but has still recorded around $5.3 billion in net inflows so far this year. Kaletsky has advised avoiding government bonds of major advanced economies since 2022, but now believes U.S. interest rates could fall again in the future; Bianco, meanwhile, noted that long-term Treasuries also hold hedging value if the economy weakens significantly or the stock market undergoes a major correction. However, factors including the U.S. fiscal deficit, Treasury supply, financing needs of AI firms, war-related spending, and rising energy prices could continue to push long-term yields higher.
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