Analysis: S&P 500 and Bitcoin have a 100% probability of rising within 12 months after the U.S. midterm elections.
2026.10.06 17:57:39
According to statistics from XWIN Japan, in the 12 months following all 19 U.S. midterm elections since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen, with an average gain of 15.4%. The third year of a U.S. president’s term has historically been its strongest performing period. In the crypto market, Bitcoin has posted gains of 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3% in the 12 months after the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterm elections respectively. However, Bitcoin dropped 45.5% in the first month after the 2018 election. It should be noted that there are only three observed data points for the crypto market, which is insufficient to form a reliable pattern. Analysts suggest that after midterm elections are finalized, attention should be paid to whether yields stabilize, institutional buying persists, and regulatory progress is made. Political tailwinds may benefit Bitcoin, but sustained growth still requires favorable market conditions to align.
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