US CFTC probes trades by former congressman linked to his Kalshi bet on whether he would receive a pardon.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating former Illinois Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger, focusing on prediction market trades conducted between December 2024 and January 2025 via a Kalshi account linked to him. Kinzinger admitted he bet on whether he would receive a presidential pardon and participated in another contract regarding whether President Biden would issue preemptive pardons before leaving office. Hours before Biden left office in January 2025, he pardoned Kinzinger and other members of the House Select Committee that investigated the U.S. Capitol riot. Screenshots provided by Kinzinger show he earned $823 from the relevant trades; he noted he made around 25 total trades during the period, most of which were unprofitable. Kinzinger denies any wrongdoing, stating he had been out of office for two years at the time of the trades, was neither a sitting congressman nor a candidate, had no access to material non-public information, and never discussed pardons with anyone. He added that he reviewed Kalshi’s rules before trading—Kalshi prohibits users from participating in contracts where they are a direct party, while the CFTC also bans the use of material non-public information in regulated markets. Kalshi is reviewing the trades in question, but both the platform and the CFTC declined to comment; Kinzinger said neither has contacted him regarding the investigation.