Wintermute：比特币突破后迎首次测试，8.25万美元成关键观察位

Wintermute noted in a report that, on the macro front, risk assets extended their rally last week. Even as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5% – a level not seen since 2007 – the market showed no significant flight-to-safety sentiment. Crypto assets led gains, with altcoins rising around 5% overall, followed by Bitcoin (BTC). The Nasdaq also notched gains, while U.S. Treasuries with maturities of 20 years or longer underperformed. The report identified oil prices as a key factor influencing expectations for an October rate hike. Currently, crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain significantly below pre-conflict levels, with Brent crude trading near $103 per barrel. If oil prices stay near or above $100 per barrel, market expectations for another October rate hike could stay elevated, shifting the core question to whether risk assets can absorb further near-term rate increases amid ongoing bond market pressure. In the crypto market, BTC closed above its 50-week moving average on the weekly chart for the first time last week. The current level of $82,500 marks the upper edge of its previous consolidation range and a key level to watch this week. If it holds, this could underpin the prior breakout; a break below would reignite concerns about the breakout’s validity. Meanwhile, BTC’s market dominance has risen, the breadth of altcoin gains is at a high level, and institutional options trading continues to increase allocations to year-end low-Delta call options and call spreads.