The bearish ratio among US stock retail investors has climbed to 53%, with institutions noting that the contrarian indicator is approaching the rebound zone.

According to CNBC, as oil prices rebound and U.S. Treasury yields climb, bearish sentiment among individual U.S. stock investors has surged notably. The latest weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) shows that roughly 53% of respondents are bearish on U.S. stock performance over the next six months, up about 14 percentage points from the prior week and hitting the highest level since May 2025. The share of bullish investors, meanwhile, dropped to less than 29%, down around 10 percentage points week-over-week and reaching its lowest level in roughly a year. Against the backdrop of the Iran conflict, crude oil prices have risen again, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has hovered near 5% in recent weeks, forming the core concern for individual investors. JPMorgan’s Commodities Team stated it will stop trying to predict when and how the conflict will end. Keith Lerner, chief investment officer at Truist Wealth, noted that from a contrarian perspective, AAII’s pessimism is approaching levels typically linked to market lows. Currently, only about 30% of constituent stocks trade above their 50-day moving average; if this ratio falls further below 30%, it could signal the market entering an oversold state. The CNN Fear & Greed Index has also shifted from "Greed" a month ago to "Fear" now. Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, cautioned that investors should not overinterpret sentiment indicators, adding that professional investors hold a more optimistic stance. However, he believes that judging solely from AAII’s contrarian indicator, the current market already has conditions for a rebound. Lerner also holds that investors should not halt buying due to short-term sentiment indicators, noting that the potential upside of the current long-term bull market still outweighs downside risks, and the recent pullback in tech stocks offers entry opportunities.