Next Week's Macro Outlook: Trump's 'Major Decision' on the Middle East Looms, Japan's Yen Intervention Window Nears, Markets to Digest the Aftermath of the Fed's Rate Hike

Next week, global markets will digest the aftermath of the Fed’s first interest rate hike since 2023 this week and reprice the "higher-for-longer" rate path. Geopolitically, Trump is set to meet with Gulf nations during the UN General Assembly and is nearing a "major decision" on whether to escalate strikes against Iran; air raid sirens sounded again in Saudi Arabia’s capital after months, creating conflicting pulls between oil market risk premiums and actual supply recovery; Japan has entered its "Silver Week" holiday, with low liquidity and yen pressure boosting expectations of policy intervention. Key events overview: Tuesday: Trump meets with Persian Gulf nations during the UN General Assembly in New York, nearing a "major decision" on Iran policy; U.S. Treasury auctions $69 billion in 2-year Treasuries; New York Fed President Williams and Fed Vice Chair Jefferson deliver speeches. Wednesday: U.S. Treasury auctions $70 billion in 5-year Treasuries; Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks. Thursday: U.S. Treasury auctions $44 billion in 7-year Treasuries; European Central Bank releases economic bulletin; New York Fed President Williams, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Cleveland Fed President Harker, and Philadelphia Fed President Powell hold consecutive speeches. Friday: U.S. September final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and 1-year inflation expectations; New York Fed President Williams speaks again.