Analysis: The majority of investors who bought Bitcoin (BTC) in the past 3 to 6 months are reluctant to take profits at present, and have shifted to medium- to long-term trading.

Analyst Murphy says on-chain data can clearly reveal the trading sentiment of representative investors in the current phase. First, the group that bought BTC in the past 3–6 months has seen very little profit. In other words, most of those who bought at the bottom during this period are unwilling to take profits at current levels. These are the STHs (Short-Term Holders) closest to LTHs (Long-Term Holders). Traders not selling now are likely targeting medium- to long-term positions. Additionally, the group that bought BTC in the past 6–12 months has suffered significant losses, almost covering all tokens accumulated during the entire bear market. Many LTHs in this group are not genuine believers; they only became long-term holders passively after incurring unrealized losses. Thus, they are the most volatile group during every major dip or rally. From a macro cycle perspective, BTC will not fully enter its next phase until this selling pressure is gradually exhausted. Recently, Murphy published an article discussing why Bitcoin has struggled to break through the $82,000 level. First, STHs’ (Short-Term Holders) tokens are concentrated between $59,000 and $81,000. A break above $82,000 would trigger profit-taking from some short-term speculative capital, creating the first layer of selling pressure. Second, the most concentrated price range for LTHs’ (Long-Term Holders) tokens is exactly between $81,000 and $82,000. LTHs tend to exit when prices approach their break-even point, forming the second layer of selling pressure. The analyst notes that breaking through $82,000 is indeed a short-term resistance, as the market needs time to resolve divergences and absorb supply. Once the market regains momentum and successfully breaks through, the path ahead will be clear.