US August inflation approaches the threshold for interest rate hikes; China International Capital Corporation (CICC) says it may resume interest rate hikes in September.
43 minutes ago
US August inflation data heats up again. China International Capital Corporation (CICC) research report shows that US August CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, both indicators accelerated compared to the previous period; core CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, slightly above market expectations. CICC believes that August inflation has reached the threshold for the Federal Reserve to resume rate hikes, and expects the Fed may raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 16 policy meeting, lifting the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4%. In terms of structure, rising energy prices and resilient service prices remain key drivers of inflation, while some AI-related price pressures have also begun to emerge. CICC forecasts that the Fed may lower its unemployment rate forecast, raise its inflation forecast, and lift its 2027 and 2028 interest rate paths at this meeting, signaling a more hawkish policy stance. CICC also warns that a bigger risk is the Fed may raise rates further this year or next, meaning the market’s current pricing for a rate-cut cycle still has room for readjustment.
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